Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $77.65 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-05-27), Waste Connections's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $77.65.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Waste Connections's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Waste Connections is -78.30%.

The industry rank for Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

WCN's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
76.47% of 17 companies
in the Waste Management industry
Industry Median: 1.26 vs WCN: 1.78

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Waste Connections Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

73.02

82.89

79.10

Waste Connections Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																-	-	-	79.10	77.65

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 10.80%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 10.80% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 10.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $4.218.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.108)/(1+0.1) = 1.0072727272727
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

4.218

18.4093

77.65

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(77.65	-	138.45)	/	77.65
	=	-78.30 %

Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Waste Management » Waste Connections Inc (NYSE:WCN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WCN:Mexico UI51:Germany WCN:Canada

Address

6220 Highway 7, Suite 600, Woodbridge, Vaughan, ON, CAN, L4H 4G3

Website

https://www.wasteconnections.com

Waste Connections is the third-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste and recycling services in the North America, operating 97 active landfills (12 are exploration and production waste landfills and 14 are nonmunicipal waste landfills), 142 transfer stations, and 71 recycling operations. The firm serves residential, commercial, industrial, and energy end markets. Waste Connections entered the Canadian market with its 2016 merger with Progressive Waste. In 2021, 14% of consolidated revenue was generated from the firm's Canadian segment.

Executives

Andrea E. Bertone	director	C/O CORP. SECRETARY, PEABODY ENERGY CORP, 701 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Robert Michael Cloninger	officer: SR VP, Deputy General Counsel	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Susan Netherton	officer: VP People, Training & Devlpmnt	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Jason Craft	officer: Sr Vice President-Operations	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Elise Lipman Jordan	director	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Eric Hansen	officer: Senior Vice President and CIO	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Mary Anne Whitney	officer: Sr Vice President - Finance	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Michael W Harlan	director	C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC., 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3
Patrick James Shea	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Matthew Stephen Black	officer: Sr. Vice President - Tax	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Edward E Guillet	director	C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC, 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3
Worthing Jackman	officer: EVP & CFO	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Darrell W Chambliss	officer: EVP & COO	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
David M Hall	officer: Sr. Vice President	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
James Little	officer: Sr. Vice President Engineering	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380