Waste Connections (Waste Connections) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $91.07 (As of Today)

View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

As of today (2024-04-17), Waste Connections's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $91.07.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Waste Connections's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Waste Connections is -80.83%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

WCN' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.83 Med: 1.19 Max: 1.81
Current: 1.8

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Waste Connections was 1.81. The lowest was 0.83. And the median was 1.19.

WCN's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
77.78% of 18 companies
in the Waste Management industry
Industry Median: 0.73 vs WCN: 1.80

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Waste Connections Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

81.00

92.26

91.07

Waste Connections Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)																92.26	93.96	85.93	87.47	91.07

Competitive Comparison

For the Waste Management subindustry, Waste Connections's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Waste Connections Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Waste Management industry and Industrials sector, Waste Connections's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Waste Connections's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 3.44%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Waste Connections's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 14.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $3.771.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.148)/(1+0.1) = 1.0436363636364
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.771

24.1494

91.07

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(91.07	-	164.68)	/	91.07
	=	-80.83 %

Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Waste Connections Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Waste Connections's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Waste Connections (Waste Connections) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Waste Management » Waste Connections Inc (NYSE:WCN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WCN:Mexico UI51:Germany UI51:Germany WCN:Canada

Address

6220 Highway 7, Suite 600, Woodbridge, Vaughan, ON, CAN, L4H 4G3

Website

https://www.wasteconnections.com

Waste Connections is the third-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste and recycling services in the North America, operating 100 active landfills (9 are exploration and production waste landfills and 16 are nonmunicipal waste landfills), 157 transfer stations, and 79 recycling operations. The firm serves residential, commercial, industrial, and energy end markets. Waste Connections entered the Canadian market with its 2016 merger with Progressive Waste. In 2022, 13% of consolidated revenue was generated from the firm's Canadian segment.

Executives

Philip Rivard	officer: SR VP Business Development	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Iii Robert Nielsen	officer: SR VP Operations	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Robert Michael Cloninger	officer: SR VP, Deputy General Counsel	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
William J Razzouk	director	C/O WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC, 610 APPLEWOOD CRESCENT, SUITE 200, VAUGHAN A6 L4K 0C3
James Little	officer: Sr. Vice President Engineering	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Susan Netherton	officer: VP People, Training & Devlpmnt	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Domenic Pio	officer: SR VP Operations	1001 FANNIN ST, STE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77002
David Eddie	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Accting Officer	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Andrea E. Bertone	director	C/O CORP. SECRETARY, PEABODY ENERGY CORP, 701 MARKET STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63101
Eric Hansen	officer: Senior Vice President and CIO	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Patrick James Shea	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Jason Craft	officer: Sr Vice President-Operations	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Darrell W Chambliss	officer: EVP & COO	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
David M Hall	officer: Sr. Vice President	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Matthew Stephen Black	officer: Sr. Vice President - Tax	3 WATERWAY SQUARE PLACE, SUITE #110, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380