Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: MXN1,379.87 (As of Today)

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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2023-06-01), Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is MXN1,379.87. The stock price of Morgan Stanley is MXN1472.25. Therefore, Morgan Stanley's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:MS' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.2 Med: 0.64 Max: 69.22
Current: 1.07

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Morgan Stanley was 69.22. The lowest was 0.20. And the median was 0.64.

MEX:MS's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
55.75% of 513 companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 0.90 vs MEX:MS: 1.07

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Morgan Stanley Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

1,416.07

1,974.96

968.45

2,359.92

1,639.59

Morgan Stanley Quarterly Data
	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF																2,132.78	2,372.19	1,887.55	1,639.59	1,348.53

Competitive Comparison

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Annual Data Quarterly Data

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Morgan Stanley's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = MXN77,497.72.

Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF	=	(Growth Multiple	*	Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)	+	Total Stockholders Equity (Mar23)	*	0.8)	/	Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
	=	(13.503042164971	*	77497.72464	+	1817388.649	*	0.8)	/	1663.000
	=	1,503.53

Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Morgan Stanley's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF	=	Share Price	/	Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
	=	1472.25	/	1503.527337765
	=	0.98

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Business Description

Industry

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Address

1585 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.morganstanley.com

Morgan Stanley is a global investment bank whose history, through its legacy firms, can be traced back to 1924. The company has institutional securities, wealth management, and investment management segments. The company had about $5 trillion of client assets as well as over 70,000 employees at the end of 2021. Approximately 50% of the company's net revenue is from its institutional securities business, with the remainder coming from wealth and investment management. The company derives about 30% of its total revenue outside the Americas.