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Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: MXN1,379.87 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2023-06-01), Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is MXN1,379.87. The stock price of Morgan Stanley is MXN1472.25. Therefore, Morgan Stanley's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:MS' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.2   Med: 0.64   Max: 69.22
Current: 1.07

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Morgan Stanley was 69.22. The lowest was 0.20. And the median was 0.64.

MEX:MS's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
55.75% of 513 companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 0.90 vs MEX:MS: 1.07

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Morgan Stanley Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1,416.07 1,974.96 968.45 2,359.92 1,639.59

Morgan Stanley Quarterly Data
Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2,132.78 2,372.19 1,887.55 1,639.59 1,348.53

Competitive Comparison

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF's extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Morgan Stanley's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = MXN77,497.72.

Morgan Stanley's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Mar23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.503042164971*77497.72464+1817388.649*0.8)/1663.000
=1,503.53

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Morgan Stanley  (MEX:MS) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Morgan Stanley's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=1472.25/1503.527337765
=0.98

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Morgan Stanley Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Business Description

Morgan Stanley logo
Address
1585 Broadway, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Morgan Stanley is a global investment bank whose history, through its legacy firms, can be traced back to 1924. The company has institutional securities, wealth management, and investment management segments. The company had about $5 trillion of client assets as well as over 70,000 employees at the end of 2021. Approximately 50% of the company's net revenue is from its institutional securities business, with the remainder coming from wealth and investment management. The company derives about 30% of its total revenue outside the Americas.

Morgan Stanley (MEX:MS) Headlines