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Shoe Carnival Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $29.60 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2021-10-16), Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $29.60. The stock price of Shoe Carnival is $32.34. Therefore, Shoe Carnival's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

NAS:SCVL' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.39   Med: 1.17   Max: 354.17
Current: 1.09

0.39
354.17

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Shoe Carnival was 354.17. The lowest was 0.39. And the median was 1.17.

NAS:SCVL's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
64% of the 154 Companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.

( Industry Median: 1.53 vs. NAS:SCVL: 1.09 )

Shoe Carnival Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shoe Carnival Annual Data
Trend Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 13.71 15.53 19.92 26.40 25.24

Shoe Carnival Quarterly Data
Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 22.81 21.75 25.24 28.81 29.60

Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Shoe Carnival Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Shoe Carnival Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Shoe Carnival's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $50.83.

Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jul21)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(10.551003399274*50.82864+389.912*0.8)/28.652
=29.60

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shoe Carnival  (NAS:SCVL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Shoe Carnival's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=32.34/29.604312209287
=1.09

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shoe Carnival Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shoe Carnival's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shoe Carnival Business Description

Shoe Carnival logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 448210 SIC : 5661
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7500 East Columbia Street, Evansville, IN, USA, 47715
Shoe Carnival Inc is a footwear retailer with hundreds of stores in the United States. It offers moderately priced, name-brand dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men, women, and children. Its average store has more than 27,000 pairs of shoes. The company promotes a shopping experience that includes contests, games, and a person on a stage with a microphone to announce limited-time specials. To enable its value-pricing strategy, Shoe Carnival minimizes staffing needs by housing all merchandise on the selling floor and leases store locations in open-air shopping centers. The company buys its merchandise from hundreds of vendors, with Nike and Skechers accounting for a substantial portion of total company sales. All merchandise goes through the company's distribution center in Indiana.
Executives
Sifford Clifton E director, officer: VICE CHAIRMAN & CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SIFFORD CLIFTON E a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Baker Timothy T officer: EXEC. VP - CHIEF RETAIL PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: BAKER TIMOTHY T a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Tomm Charles B. director 201 N. FRANKLIN STREET SUITE 2800 TAMPA FL 33602
Scibetta Carl N. officer: EVP - CHIEF MERCHANDISE OFF. 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Kleeberger Kent A director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: KLEEBERGER KENT A a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Aschleman James A director 300 N MERIDIAN ST STE 2700 INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Wood Joseph W director 4896 DEER RIDGE DRIVE SOUTH CARMEL IN 46033
Guthrie Andrea R. director 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Jackson W Kerry officer: SENIOR EVP - CFO & CAO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: JACKSON W KERRY a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Worden Mark J. officer: PRESIDENT & CHIEF CUSTOMER OFF 7500 E. COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Weaver Wayne J director, 10 percent owner, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Weaver Delores B 10 percent owner TWO STAMFORD PLAZA 281 TRESSER BLVD P O BOX 1214 STAMFORD CT 06904-1214
Gerstel Jeffrey C director 933 MACARTHUR BOULEVARD MAHWAH NJ 07430
Yearwood Kathy A officer: SVP CONTROLLER/PAO 7500 EAST COLUMBIA STREET EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Schoor Gerald W director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SCHOOR GERALD W a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}

Shoe Carnival Headlines

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