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Toll Brothers Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $111.70 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2022-08-13), Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $111.70. The stock price of Toll Brothers is $50.04. Therefore, Toll Brothers's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.5.

The historical rank and industry rank for Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

TOL' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.35   Med: 1.39   Max: 18.33
Current: 0.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Toll Brothers was 18.33. The lowest was 0.35. And the median was 1.39.

TOL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
71.62% of 74 companies
in the Homebuilding & Construction industry
Industry Median: 0.65 vs TOL: 0.45

Toll Brothers Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Toll Brothers Annual Data
Trend Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 29.67 46.54 63.05 87.16 114.08

Toll Brothers Quarterly Data
Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 84.96 93.82 114.08 105.87 111.70

Competitive Comparison

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Toll Brothers Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Distribution

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF falls into.



Toll Brothers Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Toll Brothers's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $605.03.

Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Apr22)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*605.03392+5363.892*0.8)/118.925
=111.70

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Toll Brothers  (NYSE:TOL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Toll Brothers's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=50.04/111.69664068983
=0.45

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Toll Brothers Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Toll Brothers's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Toll Brothers Business Description

Toll Brothers logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1140 Virginia Drive, Fort Washington, PA, USA, 19034
Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States with an average sale price well above public competitors'. The company operates in 60 markets across 24 states and caters to move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. Traditional homebuilding operations represent most of company's revenue. Toll Brothers also builds luxury for-sale and for-rent properties in urban centers across the U.S. It has its headquarters in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
Executives
Kan Derek T. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Stowell Scott D director
East Stephen F. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Parahus Robert officer: EVP,Co-Chief Operating Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Boyd James W. officer: EVP,Co-Chief Operating Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Mcdonald John K. officer: SVP, General Counsel TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Grimes Karen H. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Pritchett Wendell E. director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Grubb Michael J. officer: Chief Accounting Officer TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Mclean John A director TOLL BROTHERS, INC. 1140 GIBRALTAR ROAD FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Hartman Richard T. officer: Chief Operating Officer 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Connor Martin P. officer: Chief Financial Officer 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Yearley Douglas C. Jr. officer: Executive Vice President 250 GIBRALTAR ROAD HORSHAM PA 19044
Garvey Christine director 14100 E 35TH PLACE AURORA CO 80011
Boehne Edward G director 313 DEVON STATE ST DEVON PA 19333

Toll Brothers Headlines

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