EC (Ecopetrol) Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based): -86.81% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


EC Ecopetrol SA EC
65 GF Score
Price $14.59
GF Value $10.29
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Ecopetrol Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based)?

Ecopetrol EC -5.93% 65 Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -86.81% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates EC with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of $10.29 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) - Current Price) / Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based).

Note: Discounted FCF model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

As of today (2026-06-24), Ecopetrol's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars. Ecopetrol's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted FCF model is $15.75 and current share price is $14.59. Consequently,

Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) using Discounted FCF model is -86.81%.

EC vs XOM, CVX: Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Ecopetrol Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) falls into.


EC
65GF Score
Ecopetrol SA EC
Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Ecopetrol Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) Calculation

Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(7.81-14.59)/7.81
=-86.81 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

The intrinsic value is calculated from the Discounted FCF model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Earnings model except free cash flow are used in the calculation instead of earnings per share.

What does a Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -86.81% mean?
Ecopetrol (EC) has a Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -86.81% as of Jun. 24, 2026. Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF FCF price. View historical data on Ecopetrol.
Is Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) too high?
Ecopetrol's current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -86.81%. Overall, Ecopetrol has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) compare to XOM and CVX?
Ecopetrol's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -86.81% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) mean?
A high Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF FCF price. View historical data on Ecopetrol. Ecopetrol's current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -86.81%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ecopetrol stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ecopetrol (EC) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $10.29, compared to a current price of $14.59 — trading 41.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -86.81%. Ecopetrol's overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) calculated?
Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ecopetrol (EC), the current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -86.81% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Ecopetrol (EC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ecopetrol stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $14.59 is trading 41.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $10.29. GuruFocus considers Ecopetrol to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for EC:

  • Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based): -86.81%
  • GF Value™: $10.29 vs. price of $14.59 (41.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the EC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Ecopetrol Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address Carrera 13 No. 36 - 24, Main Building, Bogota, COL
Ecopetrol SA is engaged in commercial and industrial activities related to the exploration, exploitation, refining, transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing of hydrocarbons, their derivatives, and products, as well as the electric power transmission services, design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects and the provision of information technology and telecommunications services. The operations of the company are performed through four business segments: Exploration and Production, Transport and Logistics, Refining and Petrochemical, and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from the Exploration and Production segment.
65GF Score

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Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$14.59
Price
$10.29
GF Value