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EcopetrolEC -3.56%61 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.38% as of Mar. 2026, which is 43% below its 10-year median of 25.44. GuruFocus rates EC with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of $10.50 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 602 Oil & Gas companies, Ecopetrol ranks better than 52.99% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Ecopetrol's forward rate of return for was 14.38%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
EC'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -28.57 Med: 25.44 Max: 33.18
Current: 14.47
During the past 13 years, Ecopetrol's highest Forward Rate of Return was 33.18. The lowest was -28.57. And the median was 25.44.
EC's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 52.99% of 602
companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 13.46
vs EC: 14.47
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Ecopetrol Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Ecopetrol Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Ecopetrol Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
EC vs XOM, CVX: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ecopetrol Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Ecopetrol Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return of Mar. 2026 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
1.17504762
/
14.99
+
0.0408
=
11.92 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 14.38% mean?
Ecopetrol (EC) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 14.38% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ecopetrol and its competitors. This is 43% below median its historical median of 25.44. According to the industry distribution chart, Ecopetrol ranks #283 out of 602 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 47%.
Is Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Ecopetrol's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 14.38% is 43% below median its 10-year median of 25.44. The Oil & Gas industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.46. Ecopetrol's value of 14.38% is 6.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ecopetrol ranks #283 out of 602 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Ecopetrol has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ecopetrol's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to XOM and CVX?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Ecopetrol ranks #283 out of 602 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Ecopetrol in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.46. Ecopetrol's value of 14.38% is 6.8% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 25.44 vs. the industry median of 13.46, Ecopetrol has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Oil & Gas companies is 13.46, based on 602 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ecopetrol's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 14.38% is 6.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ecopetrol and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.46 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ecopetrol's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.38%, which is 43% below median its own 10-year median of 25.44. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ecopetrol stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ecopetrol (EC) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $10.50, compared to a current price of $16.78 — trading 59.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.38%, which is 43% below median its 10-year median of 25.44 and 6.8% above the Oil & Gas industry median of 13.46. Ecopetrol's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ecopetrol (EC), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 14.38% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ecopetrol (EC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ecopetrol stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $16.78 is trading 59.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $10.50.
GuruFocus considers Ecopetrol to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for EC:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 14.38% (43% below median its 10-year median of 25.44)
GF Value™: $10.50 vs. price of $16.78 (59.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 6.8% above the Oil & Gas median (#283 of 602)
No single metric tells the full story. See the EC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ecopetrol SA is engaged in commercial and industrial activities related to the exploration, exploitation, refining, transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing of hydrocarbons, their derivatives, and products, as well as the electric power transmission services, design, development, construction, operation, and maintenance of road and energy infrastructure projects and the provision of information technology and telecommunications services. The operations of the company are performed through four business segments: Exploration and Production, Transport and Logistics, Refining and Petrochemical, and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from the Exploration and Production segment.
61GF Score
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