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Carnival Beneish M-Score

: -2.04 (As of Today)
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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Carnival has a M-score of -2.04 signals that the company is a manipulator.

NYSE:CCL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.55   Med: -2.62   Max: 24.06
Current: -2.04

-3.55
24.06

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Carnival was 24.06. The lowest was -3.55. And the median was -2.62.


Carnival Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Carnival Annual Data
Nov10 Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Nov15 Nov16 Nov17 Nov18 Nov19
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.92 -2.86 -2.72 -2.67 -2.50

Carnival Quarterly Data
Aug15 Nov15 Feb16 May16 Aug16 Nov16 Feb17 May17 Aug17 Nov17 Feb18 May18 Aug18 Nov18 Feb19 May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20
Beneish M-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.61 -2.55 -2.50 -2.75 -2.04

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Carnival Beneish M-Score Distribution

* The bar in red indicates where Carnival's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Carnival Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Carnival for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.7534+0.528 * 1.5696+0.404 * 0.5591+0.892 * 0.8506+0.115 * 0.9688
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1382+4.679 * -0.026-0.327 * 1.2867
=-2.04

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (May20) TTM:Last Year (May19) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $604 Mil.
Revenue was 740 + 4790 + 4781 + 6532 = $16,843 Mil.
Gross Profit was -1744 + 1267 + 1705 + 3000 = $4,228 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $8,222 Mil.
Total Assets was $49,817 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $38,552 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $2,248 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,400 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $11,858 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $16,162 Mil.
Net Income was -4374 + -781 + 423 + 1780 = $-2,952 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -1396 + -738 + -5 + -19 = $-2,158 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -2720 + 916 + 1061 + 1245 = $502 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $405 Mil.
Revenue was 4837 + 4673 + 4456 + 5836 = $19,802 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1678 + 1531 + 1715 + 2878 = $7,802 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,835 Mil.
Total Assets was $44,512 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $36,814 Mil.
(DDA) was $2,076 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $2,479 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $10,377 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $9,080 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Accounts Receivable in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(604 / 16843) / (405 / 19802)
=0.03586059 / 0.02045248
=1.7534

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(7802 / 19802) / (4228 / 16843)
=0.39400061 / 0.25102416
=1.5696

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (8222 + 38552) / 49817) / (1 - (2835 + 36814) / 44512)
=0.06108357 / 0.10925144
=0.5591

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=16843 / 19802
=0.8506

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(2076 / (2076 + 36814)) / (2248 / (2248 + 38552))
=0.05338133 / 0.05509804
=0.9688

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(2400 / 16843) / (2479 / 19802)
=0.14249243 / 0.12518937
=1.1382

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((16162 + 11858) / 49817) / ((9080 + 10377) / 44512)
=0.5624586 / 0.43711808
=1.2867

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-2952 - -2158 - 502) / 49817
=-0.026

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Carnival has a M-score of -2.04 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Carnival Beneish M-Score Headlines

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