GGGSF (Greggs) Beneish M-Score: -2.87 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


GGGSF Greggs PLC GGGSF
78 GF Score
Price $20.51
GF Value $45.81
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Greggs Beneish M-Score?

Greggs GGGSF 78 Beneish M-Score is -2.87 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates GGGSF with a GF Score™ of 78/100 and a GF Value™ of $45.81 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 357 Restaurants companies, Greggs ranks better than 60.22% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.87 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Greggs's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

GGGSF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.55   Med: -3.03   Max: -2.02
Current: -2.87

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Greggs was -2.02. The lowest was -3.55. And the median was -3.03.


Greggs Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Greggs's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Greggs Beneish M-Score Chart

Greggs Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.28 -2.78 -3.03 -3.02 -2.87

Greggs Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.03 0.00 -3.02 0.00 -2.87

GGGSF vs MCD, SBUX, CMG: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Greggs's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Greggs Beneish M-Score vs Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Greggs's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Greggs's Beneish M-Score falls into.


GGGSF
78GF Score
Greggs PLC GGGSF
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Greggs Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Greggs for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0132+0.528 * 1.0045+0.404 * 1.5358+0.892 * 1.1308+0.115 * 1.0281
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0135+4.679 * -0.144744-0.327 * 1.0065
=-2.81

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was $71 Mil.
Revenue was $2,880 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,770 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $262 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,987 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,667 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $215 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,519 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $465 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $552 Mil.
Net Income was $164 Mil.
Gross Profit was $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $451 Mil.
Total Receivables was $62 Mil.
Revenue was $2,547 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,572 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $307 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,668 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,330 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $177 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,325 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $392 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $457 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(70.683 / 2879.786) / (61.694 / 2546.65)
=0.024545 / 0.024226
=1.0132

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1572.187 / 2546.65) / (1769.88 / 2879.786)
=0.617355 / 0.614587
=1.0045

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (262.249 + 1666.801) / 1986.613) / (1 - (307.08 + 1329.836) / 1668.394)
=0.028975 / 0.018867
=1.5358

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2879.786 / 2546.65
=1.1308

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(176.991 / (176.991 + 1329.836)) / (214.993 / (214.993 + 1666.801))
=0.117459 / 0.114249
=1.0281

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1518.876 / 2879.786) / (1325.284 / 2546.65)
=0.527427 / 0.520403
=1.0135

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((551.941 + 465.462) / 1986.613) / ((456.764 + 392.162) / 1668.394)
=0.512129 / 0.508828
=1.0065

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(163.588 - 0 - 451.138) / 1986.613
=-0.144744

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Greggs has a M-score of -2.81 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.87 mean?
Greggs (GGGSF) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.87 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Greggs and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Greggs ranks #142 out of 357 companies in the Restaurants industry, placing it in the top 39.8%.
Is Greggs' Beneish M-Score too high?
Greggs' current Beneish M-Score is -2.87. Based on the distribution chart, Greggs ranks #142 out of 357 companies in the Restaurants industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Greggs has a GF Score™ of 78/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Greggs' Beneish M-Score compare to MCD and SBUX?
According to the Restaurants industry distribution chart, Greggs ranks #142 out of 357 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Greggs in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Restaurants company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Restaurants industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Greggs and its competitors. Greggs's current Beneish M-Score is -2.87. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Greggs stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Greggs (GGGSF) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $45.81, compared to a current price of $20.51 — trading 55.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.87. Greggs' overall GF Score™ is 78/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Greggs (GGGSF), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.87 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Greggs (GGGSF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Greggs stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $20.51 is trading 55.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $45.81. GuruFocus considers Greggs to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for GGGSF:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.87
  • GF Value™: $45.81 vs. price of $20.51 (55.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the GGGSF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Greggs Business Description

Address Greggs House, Quorum Business Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, GBR, NE12 8BU
Greggs PLC is a U.K.-based company that is principally engaged in manufacturing, distributing, and retailing bakery goods, sandwiches, and drinks under the Greggs brand. The company focuses on the food-on-the-go market. It has a vertically integrated supply network, with its bakeries & delivery network. Greggs operates in two segments: Company-managed retail activities and the Business-to-business channel. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Company-managed retail activities segment, in which the Group sells a consistent range of fresh bakery goods, sandwiches, and drinks in its own shops or via delivery. Sales are made to the general public on a cash basis. All results arise in the United Kingdom.
78GF Score

Get the complete analysis for GGGSF

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$20.51
Price
$45.81
GF Value