AIA Group (MEX:1299N) Beneish M-Score: -2.27 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


MEX:1299N AIA Group Ltd MEX:1299N
59 GF Score
Price MXN180.18
GF Value MXN154.19
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is AIA Group Beneish M-Score?

AIA Group MEX:1299N 59 Beneish M-Score is -2.27 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:1299N with a GF Score™ of 59/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN154.19 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 397 Insurance companies, AIA Group ranks worse than 74.56% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.27 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for AIA Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:1299N' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.92   Med: -2.37   Max: -1.58
Current: -2.27

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of AIA Group was -1.58. The lowest was -2.92. And the median was -2.37.

MEX:1299N
59GF Score
AIA Group Ltd MEX:1299N
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

AIA Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of AIA Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9396+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.001+0.892 * 1.094+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * 0.002038-0.327 * 0.9491
=-2.43

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN87,166 Mil.
Revenue was MXN713,098 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN713,098 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN0 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN6,219,583 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN84,627 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN264,162 Mil.
Net Income was MXN112,248 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN-25,928 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was MXN125,500 Mil.
 Total Receivables was MXN84,799 Mil.
Revenue was MXN651,845 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN651,845 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN0 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN6,370,457 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN92,745 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN0 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN285,097 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(87165.594 / 713097.743) / (84799.276 / 651844.903)
=0.122235 / 0.130091
=0.9396

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(651844.903 / 651844.903) / (713097.743 / 713097.743)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 84626.79) / 6219582.915) / (1 - (0 + 92745.298) / 6370456.983)
=0.986393 / 0.985441
=1.001

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=713097.743 / 651844.903
=1.094

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 92745.298)) / (0 / (0 + 84626.79))
=0 / 0
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 713097.743) / (0 / 651844.903)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((264161.625 + 0) / 6219582.915) / ((285097.419 + 0) / 6370456.983)
=0.042473 / 0.044753
=0.9491

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(112247.534 - -25928.208 - 125499.729) / 6219582.915
=0.002038

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

AIA Group has a M-score of -2.43 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.27 mean?
AIA Group (MEX:1299N) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.27 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on AIA Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, AIA Group ranks #296 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 74.6%.
Is AIA Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
AIA Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.27. Based on the distribution chart, AIA Group ranks #296 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, AIA Group has a GF Score™ of 59/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does AIA Group's Beneish M-Score compare to AFL and MET?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, AIA Group ranks #296 out of 397 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places AIA Group in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on AIA Group and its competitors. AIA Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.27. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is AIA Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, AIA Group (MEX:1299N) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN154.19, compared to a current price of MXN180.18 — trading 16.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.27. AIA Group's overall GF Score™ is 59/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For AIA Group (MEX:1299N), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.27 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is AIA Group (MEX:1299N) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, AIA Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of MXN180.18 is trading 16.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN154.19. GuruFocus considers AIA Group to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:1299N:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.27
  • GF Value™: MXN154.19 vs. price of MXN180.18 (16.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 59/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:1299N stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

AIA Group Business Description

Address No. 1 Connaught Road Central, 35th Floor, AIA Central, Hong Kong, HKG
Headquartered in Hong Kong, AIA stands as one of the largest pan-Asian life insurance providers, offering a diversified portfolio of products spanning retirement savings plans, life insurance, and accident and health coverage. Formerly a subsidiary of American International Group, the company spun off and listed independently on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010. Beyond individual customers, AIA also delivers employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. With operations across 18 markets, the insurer serves more than 30 million individual policyholders and over 16 million members participating in group insurance schemes.
59GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:1299N

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN180.18
Price
MXN154.19
GF Value