Vistra (MEX:VST) Beneish M-Score: -2.70 (As of Jul. 13, 2026)

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MEX:VST Vistra Corp MEX:VST
80 GF Score
Price MXN2,791.45
GF Value MXN2,911.51
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Vistra Beneish M-Score?

Vistra MEX:VST +0.30% 80 Beneish M-Score is -2.70 as of Jul. 13, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:VST with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN2,911.51 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 393 Utilities - Independent Power Producers companies, Vistra ranks better than 61.07% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.7 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Vistra's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:VST' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.55   Med: -2.68   Max: 0.87
Current: -2.7

During the past 12 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Vistra was 0.87. The lowest was -3.55. And the median was -2.68.


Vistra Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Vistra's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Vistra Beneish M-Score Chart

Vistra Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -0.91 -2.83 -3.55 -2.60 -2.54

Vistra Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.72 -2.68 -2.72 -2.54 -2.70

MEX:VST vs NRG, TLN, CEG: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers subindustry, Vistra's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Vistra Beneish M-Score vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Vistra's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Vistra's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MEX:VST
80GF Score
Vistra Corp MEX:VST
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Vistra Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Vistra for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9178+0.528 * 1.0729+0.404 * 0.951+0.892 * 0.9904+0.115 * 1.0494
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9905+4.679 * -0.062573-0.327 * 0.9926
=-2.83

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN35,777 Mil.
Revenue was 101704.428 + 82538.129 + 91189.018 + 80024.1 = MXN355,456 Mil.
Gross Profit was 43458.807 + 27944.846 + 35697.813 + 29053.456 = MXN136,155 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN162,583 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN744,895 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN358,418 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN53,025 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN32,017 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN181,391 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN311,317 Mil.
Net Income was 18555.648 + 4195.328 + 11960.418 + 6157.148 = MXN40,869 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -270.491 + -666.211 + 1577.601 + 1751.116 = MXN2,392 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 21621.207 + 25784.162 + 26910.941 + 10770.302 = MXN85,087 Mil.
Total Receivables was MXN39,362 Mil.
Revenue was 80462.101 + 84194.461 + 123812.606 + 70440.796 = MXN358,910 Mil.
Gross Profit was 16223.353 + 33369.12 + 68226.89 + 29678.567 = MXN147,498 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN172,463 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN782,076 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN362,437 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN56,681 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN32,639 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN199,529 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN321,623 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(35776.877 / 355455.675) / (39361.577 / 358909.964)
=0.100651 / 0.10967
=0.9178

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(147497.93 / 358909.964) / (136154.922 / 355455.675)
=0.410961 / 0.383043
=1.0729

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (162582.823 + 358417.945) / 744894.772) / (1 - (172462.626 + 362437.471) / 782076.07)
=0.300571 / 0.316051
=0.951

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=355455.675 / 358909.964
=0.9904

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(56680.926 / (56680.926 + 362437.471)) / (53025.304 / (53025.304 + 358417.945))
=0.135238 / 0.128876
=1.0494

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(32016.845 / 355455.675) / (32638.953 / 358909.964)
=0.090073 / 0.090939
=0.9905

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((311316.533 + 181390.929) / 744894.772) / ((321623.362 + 199528.825) / 782076.07)
=0.661446 / 0.66637
=0.9926

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(40868.542 - 2392.015 - 85086.612) / 744894.772
=-0.062573

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Vistra has a M-score of -2.83 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.70 mean?
Vistra (MEX:VST) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.70 as of Jul. 13, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Vistra and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Vistra ranks #153 out of 393 companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry, placing it in the top 38.9%.
Is Vistra's Beneish M-Score too high?
Vistra's current Beneish M-Score is -2.70. Based on the distribution chart, Vistra ranks #153 out of 393 companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Vistra has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Vistra's Beneish M-Score compare to NRG and TLN?
According to the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry distribution chart, Vistra ranks #153 out of 393 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Vistra in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Utilities - Independent Power Producers company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Vistra and its competitors. Vistra's current Beneish M-Score is -2.70. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Vistra stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Vistra (MEX:VST) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN2,911.51, compared to a current price of MXN2,791.45 — trading 4.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.70. Vistra's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Vistra (MEX:VST), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.70 as of Jul. 13, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Vistra (MEX:VST) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Vistra stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN2,791.45 is trading 4.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN2,911.51. GuruFocus considers Vistra to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:VST:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.70
  • GF Value™: MXN2,911.51 vs. price of MXN2,791.45 (4.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 80/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:VST stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Vistra Business Description

Address 6555 Sierra Drive, Irving, TX, USA, 75039
Vistra Corp. is one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the US. It owns 44 gigawatts of generation capacity, including natural gas (27 GW), nuclear (6.5 GW), coal (8.7 GW), and solar and battery storage (1.3 GW). The Cogentrix acquisition will add 5.5 GW of gas generation. Vistra's retail electricity business serves 5 million customers in 20 states, including almost a third of all Texas electricity consumers. Vistra emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in 2016.
80GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:VST

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN2,791.45
Price
MXN2,911.51
GF Value