Vistra (MEX:VST) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

MEX:VST Vistra Corp MEX:VST
80 GF Score
Price MXN2,765.00
GF Value MXN2,913.23
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Vistra Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Vistra is: High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff.

Vistra  (MEX:VST) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Vistra Risk Assessment Related Terms

MEX:VST vs NRG, TLN, CEG: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers subindustry, Vistra's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Vistra Risk Assessment vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Vistra's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Vistra's Risk Assessment falls into.


MEX:VST
80GF Score
Vistra Corp MEX:VST
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is Vistra (MEX:VST) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Vistra stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN2,765.00 is trading 5.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN2,913.23. GuruFocus considers Vistra to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:VST:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: MXN2,913.23 vs. price of MXN2,765.00 (5.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 80/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:VST stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Vistra Business Description

Address 6555 Sierra Drive, Irving, TX, USA, 75039
Vistra Corp. is one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the US. It owns 44 gigawatts of generation capacity, including natural gas (27 GW), nuclear (6.5 GW), coal (8.7 GW), and solar and battery storage (1.3 GW). The Cogentrix acquisition will add 5.5 GW of gas generation. Vistra's retail electricity business serves 5 million customers in 20 states, including almost a third of all Texas electricity consumers. Vistra emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in 2016.
80GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:VST

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN2,765.00
Price
MXN2,913.23
GF Value