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Varun Beverages (NSE:VBL) Beneish M-Score : -2.17 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)


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What is Varun Beverages Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.17 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

NSE:VBL' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.93   Med: -2.57   Max: -2.17
Current: -2.17

During the past 9 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Varun Beverages was -2.17. The lowest was -2.93. And the median was -2.57.


Varun Beverages Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Varun Beverages Beneish M-Score Chart

Varun Beverages Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only -2.57 -2.86 -2.62 -2.19 -2.17

Varun Beverages Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.19 - - - -2.17

Competitive Comparison of Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic subindustry, Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Varun Beverages's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Varun Beverages Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Varun Beverages for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.3076+0.528 * 0.9774+0.404 * 0.8042+0.892 * 1.209+0.115 * 1.2127
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9947+4.679 * -0.022049-0.327 * 0.9841
=-2.17

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was ₹10,703 Mil.
Revenue was ₹156,217 Mil.
Gross Profit was ₹80,706 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₹42,356 Mil.
Total Assets was ₹151,872 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₹102,795 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₹6,809 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₹16,574 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₹41,532 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₹33,868 Mil.
Net Income was ₹20,559 Mil.
Gross Profit was ₹0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was ₹23,908 Mil.
Total Receivables was ₹6,770 Mil.
Revenue was ₹129,211 Mil.
Gross Profit was ₹65,246 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₹34,040 Mil.
Total Assets was ₹116,182 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₹75,749 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₹6,172 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₹13,782 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₹39,688 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₹18,924 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(10702.58 / 156217.42) / (6769.81 / 129210.52)
=0.068511 / 0.052394
=1.3076

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(65245.53 / 129210.52) / (80706.33 / 156217.42)
=0.504955 / 0.516628
=0.9774

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (42356.3 + 102794.85) / 151871.83) / (1 - (34040.3 + 75749.1) / 116182.43)
=0.044252 / 0.055026
=0.8042

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=156217.42 / 129210.52
=1.209

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(6171.89 / (6171.89 + 75749.1)) / (6809.06 / (6809.06 + 102794.85))
=0.07534 / 0.062124
=1.2127

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(16574.28 / 156217.42) / (13781.96 / 129210.52)
=0.106098 / 0.106663
=0.9947

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((33868.23 + 41532.12) / 151871.83) / ((18924.47 + 39687.54) / 116182.43)
=0.496474 / 0.504483
=0.9841

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(20559.22 - 0 - 23907.78) / 151871.83
=-0.022049

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Varun Beverages has a M-score of -2.17 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Varun Beverages Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Varun Beverages (NSE:VBL) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Plot No. 31, Institutional Area, Sector - 44, RJ Corp House, Gurugram, HR, IND, 122 002
Varun Beverages Ltd is engaged in manufacturing, selling, bottling, and distribution of beverages of Pepsi brand in geographically pre-defined territories of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Zambia, Morocco, and Zimbabwe. Its brands include Seven-Up, Mountain Dew, Mirinda, Nimbooz, Tropicana Slice, and other related products. The firm generates a majority of its revenue within India.

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