AerCap Holdings NV (AerCap Holdings NV) Beneish M-Score

: -2.71 (As of Today)

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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.71 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for AerCap Holdings NV's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AER' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.78 Med: -2.52 Max: 0.69
Current: -2.71

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of AerCap Holdings NV was 0.69. The lowest was -2.78. And the median was -2.52.

AerCap Holdings NV Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for AerCap Holdings NV's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Array ( [0] => - [1] => - [2] => - [3] => - [4] => - [5] => -2.66 [6] => -2.37 [7] => -1.01 [8] => -2.70 [9] => -2.71 )

AerCap Holdings NV Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Beneish M-Score

-2.66

-2.37

-1.01

-2.70

-2.71

AerCap Holdings NV Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Beneish M-Score																-2.70	-2.83	-2.82	-2.82	-2.71

Competitive Comparison

For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, AerCap Holdings NV's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

AerCap Holdings NV Beneish M-Score Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, AerCap Holdings NV's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AerCap Holdings NV's Beneish M-Score falls into.

AerCap Holdings NV Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of AerCap Holdings NV for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

-4.84

0.92 * DSRI

0.528 * GMI

0.404 * AQI

0.892 * SGI

0.115 * DEPI

-4.84

0.92 * 0.9986

0.528 * 0.9126

0.404 * 0.8808

0.892 * 1.0956

0.115 * 0.9901

0.172 * SGAI

4.679 * TATA

0.327 * LVGI

0.172 * 1.0603

4.679 * -0.046705

0.327 * 0.9817

-2.71

This Year (Dec23) TTM:

Last Year (Dec22) TTM:

Total Receivables was $3,832 Mil.
Revenue was 1895.807 + 1891.667 + 1923.052 + 1865.722 = $7,576 Mil.
Gross Profit was 633.29 + 655.692 + 650.834 + 592.974 = $2,533 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $6,040 Mil.
Total Assets was $71,275 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $60,724 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $2,481 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $464 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,620 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $46,576 Mil.
Net Income was 1105.838 + 1105.254 + 492.894 + 432.105 = $3,136 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 575.451 + 635.07 + 7.182 + -14.151 = $1,204 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1399.596 + 1305.243 + 1193.195 + 1363.401 = $5,261 Mil.

Total Receivables was $3,503 Mil.
Revenue was 1798.969 + 1694.64 + 1631.36 + 1790.016 = $6,915 Mil.
Gross Profit was 524.074 + 561.481 + 457.391 + 566.762 = $2,110 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $5,608 Mil.
Total Assets was $69,727 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $59,109 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $2,390 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $400 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,360 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $46,668 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI	=	(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)	/	(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
	=	(3832.24 / 7576.248)	/	(3502.698 / 6914.985)
	=	0.505823	/	0.506537
	=	0.9986

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI	=	GrossMargin_t-1	/	GrossMargin_t
	=	(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)	/	(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
	=	(2109.708 / 6914.985)	/	(2532.79 / 7576.248)
	=	0.305092	/	0.334307
	=	0.9126

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI	=	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	(1 - (6040.07 + 60724.362) / 71274.559)	/	(1 - (5608.144 + 59109.363) / 69726.918)
	=	0.063278	/	0.071843
	=	0.8808

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI	=	Sales_t	/	Sales_t-1
	=	Revenue_t	/	Revenue_t-1
	=	7576.248	/	6914.985
	=	1.0956

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI	=	(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))	/	(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
	=	(2389.807 / (2389.807 + 59109.363))	/	(2480.578 / (2480.578 + 60724.362))
	=	0.038859	/	0.039247
	=	0.9901

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI	=	(SGA_t / Sales_t)	/	(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
	=	(464.128 / 7576.248)	/	(399.53 / 6914.985)
	=	0.061261	/	0.057777
	=	1.0603

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI	=	((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	((46575.986 + 1620.135) / 71274.559)	/	((46668.175 + 1359.738) / 69726.918)
	=	0.676204	/	0.6888
	=	0.9817

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA	=	(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(3136.091 - 1203.552	-	5261.435)	/	71274.559
	=	-0.046705

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

AerCap Holdings NV has a M-score of -2.71 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

AerCap Holdings NV Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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AerCap Holdings NV (AerCap Holdings NV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » AerCap Holdings NV (NYSE:AER) » Definitions » Beneish M-Score

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

R1D:Germany R1D:Germany

Address

65 St. Stephen's Green, AerCap House, Dublin, IRL, D02 YX20

Website

https://www.aercap.com

AerCap Holdings NV is an aircraft leasing company. Its major activities include leasing, financing, sales, and management of commercial aircraft and engines. It also provides aircraft asset management and corporate services to securitization vehicles, joint ventures, and other third parties. Through its subsidiary, the group also provides engine leasing, certified aircraft engines, airframes, and engine parts. Its geographical segments include China, United States, and Other countries.

Executives

Michael George Walsh	director	65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
James A Lawrence	director	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Michael Gradon	director	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Aengus Kelly	officer: Chief Executive Officer	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Den Dikken Wouter Marinus	officer: Chief Operating Officer	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
James N Chapman	director	14 ALPINE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Peter Juhas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Philip Gene Scruggs	officer: Chief Comm. Off. and President	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Robert G Warden	director	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Marius Jonkhart	director	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Al Noaimi Salem Rashed Abdulla Ali	director	AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Walter Field Mclallen	director	1225 17TH AVE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212
Paul T Dacier	director	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Pieter Korteweg	director	C/O CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 299 PARK AVENUE - 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Robert H Benmosche	director	180 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10038