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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.05 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
STU:JAT'
s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.95 Med: -2.53 Max: -2.05
Current: -2.05
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Japan Tobacco was -2.05. The lowest was -2.95. And the median was -2.53.
The historical data trend for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
STU:JAT vs PM, MO, TPB: Beneish M-Score Comparison
For the Tobacco subindustry, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score vs Tobacco Products Industry
For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Japan Tobacco for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * DSRI
+
0.528 * GMI
+
0.404 * AQI
+
0.892 * SGI
+
0.115 * DEPI
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * 1.5695
+
0.528 * 0.9928
+
0.404 * 0.9299
+
0.892 * 0.7435
+
0.115 * 1.3761
-
0.172 * SGAI
+
4.679 * TATA
-
0.327 * LVGI
-
0.172 * 0.7282
+
4.679 * 0.000481
-
0.327 * 0.9905
=
-2.12
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI
=
(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))
/
(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=
(1168.196 / (1168.196 + 5413.89))
/
(795.407 / (795.407 + 5371.898))
=
0.177481
/
0.128972
=
1.3761
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA
=
(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(2170.898 - 0
-
2148.363)
/
46809.226
=
0.000481
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Japan Tobacco has a M-score of -2.12 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Japan Tobacco (STU:JAT) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.05 as of Aug. 06, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Japan Tobacco and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #31 out of 46 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, placing it in the top 67.4%.
Is Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score too high?
Japan Tobacco's current Beneish M-Score is -2.05. Based on the distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #31 out of 46 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Japan Tobacco has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score compare to PM and MO?
According to the Tobacco Products industry distribution chart, Japan Tobacco ranks #31 out of 46 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Japan Tobacco in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Tobacco Products company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Tobacco Products industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Japan Tobacco and its competitors. Japan Tobacco's current Beneish M-Score is -2.05. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Japan Tobacco stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Japan Tobacco (STU:JAT) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €21.75, compared to a current price of €37.67 — trading 73.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.05. Japan Tobacco's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Japan Tobacco (STU:JAT), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.05 as of Aug. 06, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Japan Tobacco (STU:JAT) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Japan Tobacco stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of €37.67 is trading 73.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of €21.75.
GuruFocus considers Japan Tobacco to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for STU:JAT:
Beneish M-Score: -2.05
GF Value™: €21.75 vs. price of €37.67 (73.2% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the STU:JAT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Japan Tobacco primarily sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, organized in three clusters consisting of Asia (which includes its home market and countries in Asia Pacific), Western Europe, and EMA (which includes Eastern Europe, the Middle East North Africa, Turkey, Americas, and duty-free). Its leading cigarette brands include Winston (non-US), Camel (non-US), Mevius, and LD. Its reduced-risk brands include Logic in vaping, Ploom in heated tobacco, and Nordic Spirit in nicotine pouches, though these generates less than 5% of tobacco sales.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for STU:JAT
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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