Japan Tobacco (STU:JAT) Beneish M-Score : -2.37 (As of Dec. 13, 2024)

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What is Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.37 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

STU:JAT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.95 Med: -2.53 Max: -2.32
Current: -2.37

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Japan Tobacco was -2.32. The lowest was -2.95. And the median was -2.53.

Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

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Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Chart

Japan Tobacco Annual Data

Trend

Mar14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Beneish M-Score

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-2.67

-2.78

-2.63

-2.43

Japan Tobacco Quarterly Data
	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24	Jun24	Sep24
Beneish M-Score	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-2.56	-2.43	-2.32	-2.37	-

Competitive Comparison of Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score

For the Tobacco subindustry, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Tobacco Products Industry

For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Japan Tobacco's Beneish M-Score falls into.

Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Japan Tobacco for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

-4.84

0.92 * DSRI

0.528 * GMI

0.404 * AQI

0.892 * SGI

0.115 * DEPI

-4.84

0.92 * 1.0862

0.528 * 1.0611

0.404 * 0.9561

0.892 * 0.9717

0.115 * 1.1203

0.172 * SGAI

4.679 * TATA

0.327 * LVGI

0.172 * 0.9662

4.679 * -0.016348

0.327 * 1.0061

-2.47

This Year (Jun24) TTM:

Last Year (Jun23) TTM:

Total Receivables was €3,872 Mil.
Revenue was 4881.923 + 4546.207 + 4356.685 + 4843.323 = €18,628 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2750.525 + 2580.544 + 2149.24 + 2843.367 = €10,324 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €20,370 Mil.
Total Assets was €46,307 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €5,239 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,123 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €6,363 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €10,206 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €6,332 Mil.
Net Income was 870.427 + 965.727 + 256.525 + 982.353 = €3,075 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = €0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1167.417 + 379.702 + 487.728 + 1797.212 = €3,832 Mil.

Total Receivables was €3,668 Mil.
Revenue was 4750.445 + 4648.733 + 4543.046 + 5228.327 = €19,171 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2781.933 + 2815.648 + 2552.348 + 3123.427 = €11,273 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €18,959 Mil.
Total Assets was €45,539 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €5,290 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €1,304 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €6,777 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €9,983 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €6,182 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI	=	(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)	/	(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
	=	(3871.816 / 18628.138)	/	(3668.361 / 19170.551)
	=	0.207848	/	0.191354
	=	1.0862

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI	=	GrossMargin_t-1	/	GrossMargin_t
	=	(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)	/	(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
	=	(11273.356 / 19170.551)	/	(10323.676 / 18628.138)
	=	0.588056	/	0.554198
	=	1.0611

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI	=	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	(1 - (20370.223 + 5238.522) / 46306.807)	/	(1 - (18958.64 + 5289.888) / 45539.164)
	=	0.446977	/	0.467524
	=	0.9561

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI	=	Sales_t	/	Sales_t-1
	=	Revenue_t	/	Revenue_t-1
	=	18628.138	/	19170.551
	=	0.9717

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI	=	(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))	/	(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
	=	(1303.822 / (1303.822 + 5289.888))	/	(1122.834 / (1122.834 + 5238.522))
	=	0.197737	/	0.176509
	=	1.1203

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI	=	(SGA_t / Sales_t)	/	(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
	=	(6362.502 / 18628.138)	/	(6776.921 / 19170.551)
	=	0.341553	/	0.353507
	=	0.9662

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI	=	((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)	/	((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
	=	((6331.812 + 10206.006) / 46306.807)	/	((6181.839 + 9982.945) / 45539.164)
	=	0.357136	/	0.354964
	=	1.0061

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA	=	(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t	-	CashFlowsfromOperations_t)	/	TotalAssets_t
	=	(3075.032 - 0	-	3832.059)	/	46306.807
	=	-0.016348

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Japan Tobacco has a M-score of -2.47 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Japan Tobacco Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Japan Tobacco Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Japan Tobacco Inc (STU:JAT) » Definitions » Beneish M-Score

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JAPAY:USA JAPAF:USA 2914:Japan JAT:Austria

Address

2-1, Toranomon 2-chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 105-8422

Website

http://www.jt.com

Japan Tobacco primarily sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, organized in three clusters consisting of Asia (which includes its home market and countries in Asia Pacific), Western Europe, and EMA (which includes Eastern Europe, the Middle East North Africa, Turkey, Americas, and duty-free). Its leading cigarette brands include Winston (non-US), Camel (non-US), Mevius, and LD. Its reduced-risk brands include Logic in vaping and Ploom in heated tobacco, though this category generates less than 5% of tobacco sales.

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