Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766) Beneish M-Score: -2.66 (As of Jul. 24, 2026)

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TSE:8766 Tokio Marine Holdings Inc TSE:8766
61 GF Score
Price 円8,116.00
GF Value 円6,350.60
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Tokio Marine Holdings Beneish M-Score?

Tokio Marine Holdings TSE:8766 +1.99% 61 Beneish M-Score is -2.66 as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:8766 with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of 円6,350.60 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 397 Insurance companies, Tokio Marine Holdings ranks better than 67.76% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.66 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Tokio Marine Holdings's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:8766' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.14   Med: -2.79   Max: -2.18
Current: -2.66

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Tokio Marine Holdings was -2.18. The lowest was -4.14. And the median was -2.79.

TSE:8766
61GF Score
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc TSE:8766
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Tokio Marine Holdings Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Tokio Marine Holdings for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9807+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0007+0.892 * 1.0651+0.115 * 0.9422
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2434+4.679 * -0.037538-0.327 * 0.9843
=-2.66

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円17,269 Mil.
Revenue was 円8,310,156 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円8,310,156 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円0 Mil.
Total Assets was 円33,002,651 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円438,811 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円176,186 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円723,908 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円726,946 Mil.
Net Income was 円531,255 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円379,540 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 円1,390,562 Mil.
 Total Receivables was 円16,534 Mil.
Revenue was 円7,802,531 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円7,802,531 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円0 Mil.
Total Assets was 円30,497,359 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円426,031 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円157,511 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円546,651 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円682,460 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(17269 / 8310156) / (16534 / 7802531)
=0.002078 / 0.002119
=0.9807

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(7802531 / 7802531) / (8310156 / 8310156)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 438811) / 33002651) / (1 - (0 + 426031) / 30497359)
=0.986704 / 0.986031
=1.0007

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8310156 / 7802531
=1.0651

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(157511 / (157511 + 426031)) / (176186 / (176186 + 438811))
=0.269922 / 0.286483
=0.9422

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(723908 / 8310156) / (546651 / 7802531)
=0.087111 / 0.070061
=1.2434

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((726946 + 0) / 33002651) / ((682460 + 0) / 30497359)
=0.022027 / 0.022378
=0.9843

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(531255 - 379540 - 1390562) / 33002651
=-0.037538

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Tokio Marine Holdings has a M-score of -2.66 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.66 mean?
Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.66 as of Jul. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Tokio Marine Holdings and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Tokio Marine Holdings ranks #128 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, placing it in the top 32.2%.
Is Tokio Marine Holdings' Beneish M-Score too high?
Tokio Marine Holdings' current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. Based on the distribution chart, Tokio Marine Holdings ranks #128 out of 397 companies in the Insurance industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Tokio Marine Holdings has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Tokio Marine Holdings' Beneish M-Score compare to CB and PGR?
According to the Insurance industry distribution chart, Tokio Marine Holdings ranks #128 out of 397 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Tokio Marine Holdings in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Insurance company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Insurance industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Tokio Marine Holdings and its competitors. Tokio Marine Holdings's current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Tokio Marine Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円6,350.60, compared to a current price of 円8,116.00 — trading 27.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.66. Tokio Marine Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.66 as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Tokio Marine Holdings (TSE:8766) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tokio Marine Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円8,116.00 is trading 27.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円6,350.60. GuruFocus considers Tokio Marine Holdings to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:8766:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.66
  • GF Value™: 円6,350.60 vs. price of 円8,116.00 (27.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 61/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:8766 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Tokio Marine Holdings Business Description

Address 2-6-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 100-0004
Dating back to 1879, Tokio Marine is the oldest insurance company in Japan and operated as its top property and casualty insurer for decades. Following industry consolidation, it now shares domestic dominance with MS and AD and Sompo. However, Tokio Marine remains by far the most valuable listed Japanese insurer by market capitalization. This premium valuation is driven by an aggressive unwinding of domestic cross-shareholdings and a highly profitable overseas portfolio. The majority of its international business is based in the United States, where it has acquired premium specialty insurers since 2008, including Philadelphia Consolidated, Delphi Financial, Tokio Marine HCC, and Privilege Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange, recently fortified by a capital alliance with Berkshire Hathaway.
61GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:8766

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円8,116.00
Price
円6,350.60
GF Value