XPO (XPO) Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (As of Jul. 16, 2026)

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XPO XPO Inc XPO
75 GF Score
Price $219.29
GF Value $128.32
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is XPO Beneish M-Score?

XPO XPO +7.06% 75 Beneish M-Score is -2.84 as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus rates XPO with a GF Score™ of 75/100 and a GF Value™ of $128.32 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 965 Transportation companies, XPO ranks better than 73.58% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.84 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for XPO's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

XPO' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -7.63   Med: -2.74   Max: -0.58
Current: -2.84

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of XPO was -0.58. The lowest was -7.63. And the median was -2.74.


XPO Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for XPO's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

XPO Beneish M-Score Chart

XPO Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.56 -2.67 -2.74 -2.76 -2.84

XPO Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.73 -2.74 -2.80 -2.84 -2.84

XPO vs KNX, SAIA, SNDR: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Trucking subindustry, XPO's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


XPO Beneish M-Score vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, XPO's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where XPO's Beneish M-Score falls into.


XPO
75GF Score
XPO Inc XPO
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

XPO Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of XPO for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0363+0.528 * 0.9276+0.404 * 0.9849+0.892 * 1.0362+0.115 * 0.9762
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2323+4.679 * -0.074178-0.327 * 0.96
=-2.84

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $1,163 Mil.
Revenue was 2096 + 2011 + 2111 + 2080 = $8,298 Mil.
Gross Profit was 239 + 233 + 271 + 268 = $1,011 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,675 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,183 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,410 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $529 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $166 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,691 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $3,763 Mil.
Net Income was 101 + 59 + 82 + 106 = $348 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -7 + -18 + -41 + -6 = $-72 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 183 + 226 + 371 + 247 = $1,027 Mil.
Total Receivables was $1,083 Mil.
Revenue was 1954 + 1922 + 2053 + 2079 = $8,008 Mil.
Gross Profit was 207 + 187 + 246 + 265 = $905 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,580 Mil.
Total Assets was $7,879 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $4,248 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $496 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $130 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,551 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $3,919 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1163 / 8298) / (1083 / 8008)
=0.140154 / 0.13524
=1.0363

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(905 / 8008) / (1011 / 8298)
=0.113012 / 0.121837
=0.9276

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1675 + 4410) / 8183) / (1 - (1580 + 4248) / 7879)
=0.256385 / 0.260312
=0.9849

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8298 / 8008
=1.0362

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(496 / (496 + 4248)) / (529 / (529 + 4410))
=0.104553 / 0.107107
=0.9762

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(166 / 8298) / (130 / 8008)
=0.020005 / 0.016234
=1.2323

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3763 + 1691) / 8183) / ((3919 + 1551) / 7879)
=0.666504 / 0.694251
=0.96

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(348 - -72 - 1027) / 8183
=-0.074178

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

XPO has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.84 mean?
XPO (XPO) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.84 as of Jul. 16, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on XPO and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, XPO ranks #255 out of 965 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 26.4%.
Is XPO's Beneish M-Score too high?
XPO's current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. Based on the distribution chart, XPO ranks #255 out of 965 companies in the Transportation industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, XPO has a GF Score™ of 75/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does XPO's Beneish M-Score compare to KNX and SAIA?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, XPO ranks #255 out of 965 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts XPO in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Transportation company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on XPO and its competitors. XPO's current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is XPO stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, XPO (XPO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $128.32, compared to a current price of $219.29 — trading 70.9% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.84. XPO's overall GF Score™ is 75/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For XPO (XPO), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.84 as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is XPO (XPO) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, XPO stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $219.29 is trading 70.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of $128.32. GuruFocus considers XPO to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for XPO:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.84
  • GF Value™: $128.32 vs. price of $219.29 (70.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 75/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XPO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


XPO Business Description

Address Five American Lane, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06831
Following the spinoff of its contract logistics division (GXO) in 2021 and freight brokerage operations (RXO) in 2022, XPO is moving closer to becoming a pure-play asset-based less-than-truckload carrier. We estimate LTL shipping makes up 60% of total revenue, with XPO's European truckload and LTL operations making up 40%. However, XPO's LTL segment EBITDA mix is much higher than 60%. We believe XPO intends to divest its European trucking division once it finds the right buyer.
75GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XPO

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$219.29
Price
$128.32
GF Value