Imperial Brands (XTER:ITB) Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


XTER:ITB Imperial Brands PLC XTER:ITB
71 GF Score
Price €32.37
GF Value €20.82
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Imperial Brands Beneish M-Score?

Imperial Brands XTER:ITB +0.81% 71 Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates XTER:ITB with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of €20.82 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 45 Tobacco Products companies, Imperial Brands ranks better than 66.67% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.77 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Imperial Brands's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

XTER:ITB' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.85   Med: -2.77   Max: -2.28
Current: -2.77

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Imperial Brands was -2.28. The lowest was -2.85. And the median was -2.77.


Imperial Brands Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Imperial Brands's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Imperial Brands Beneish M-Score Chart

Imperial Brands Annual Data
Trend Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23 Sep24 Sep25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.28 -2.77 -2.77 -2.54 -2.77

Imperial Brands Semi-Annual Data
Sep16 Mar17 Sep17 Mar18 Sep18 Mar19 Sep19 Mar20 Sep20 Mar21 Sep21 Mar22 Sep22 Mar23 Sep23 Mar24 Sep24 Mar25 Sep25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -2.54 0.00 -2.77 0.00

XTER:ITB vs PM, MO, TPB: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Tobacco subindustry, Imperial Brands's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Imperial Brands Beneish M-Score vs Tobacco Products Industry

For the Tobacco Products industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Imperial Brands's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Imperial Brands's Beneish M-Score falls into.


XTER:ITB
71GF Score
Imperial Brands PLC XTER:ITB
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Imperial Brands Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Imperial Brands for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0472+0.528 * 0.961+0.404 * 0.9854+0.892 * 0.9589+0.115 * 0.8632
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0971+4.679 * -0.054188-0.327 * 1.0406
=-2.80

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Sep25) TTM:Last Year (Sep24) TTM:
Total Receivables was €2,976 Mil.
Revenue was €37,040 Mil.
Gross Profit was €8,062 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €10,146 Mil.
Total Assets was €33,061 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,184 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €899 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €4,044 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €13,648 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €10,174 Mil.
Net Income was €2,384 Mil.
Gross Profit was €0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was €4,176 Mil.
Total Receivables was €2,964 Mil.
Revenue was €38,627 Mil.
Gross Profit was €8,079 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €9,768 Mil.
Total Assets was €33,163 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €2,292 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €771 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €3,844 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €13,660 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €9,303 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(2976.243 / 37040.124) / (2964.004 / 38627.396)
=0.080352 / 0.076733
=1.0472

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(8079.205 / 38627.396) / (8061.762 / 37040.124)
=0.209157 / 0.217649
=0.961

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (10145.708 + 2184.114) / 33061.054) / (1 - (9767.984 + 2291.829) / 33162.997)
=0.627059 / 0.636347
=0.9854

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=37040.124 / 38627.396
=0.9589

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(771.094 / (771.094 + 2291.829)) / (899.205 / (899.205 + 2184.114))
=0.251751 / 0.291635
=0.8632

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(4043.546 / 37040.124) / (3843.552 / 38627.396)
=0.109167 / 0.099503
=1.0971

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((10174.492 + 13648.119) / 33061.054) / ((9303.183 + 13660.399) / 33162.997)
=0.720564 / 0.692446
=1.0406

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(2384.449 - 0 - 4175.951) / 33061.054
=-0.054188

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Imperial Brands has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 mean?
Imperial Brands (XTER:ITB) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Imperial Brands and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Imperial Brands ranks #15 out of 45 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, placing it in the top 33.3%.
Is Imperial Brands' Beneish M-Score too high?
Imperial Brands' current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Based on the distribution chart, Imperial Brands ranks #15 out of 45 companies in the Tobacco Products industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Imperial Brands has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Imperial Brands' Beneish M-Score compare to PM and MO?
According to the Tobacco Products industry distribution chart, Imperial Brands ranks #15 out of 45 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Imperial Brands in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Tobacco Products company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Tobacco Products industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Imperial Brands and its competitors. Imperial Brands's current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Imperial Brands stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Imperial Brands (XTER:ITB) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €20.82, compared to a current price of €32.37 — trading 55.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Imperial Brands' overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Imperial Brands (XTER:ITB), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Imperial Brands (XTER:ITB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Imperial Brands stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €32.37 is trading 55.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of €20.82. GuruFocus considers Imperial Brands to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for XTER:ITB:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.77
  • GF Value™: €20.82 vs. price of €32.37 (55.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XTER:ITB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Imperial Brands Business Description

Address 121 Winterstoke Road, Bristol, GBR, BS3 2LL
Imperial Brands is the world's fourth-largest international tobacco company (excluding China National Tobacco), with total fiscal 2025 volume of 187 billion cigarettes sold in more than 120 countries. Its largest and most important markets are the US (where it sits as the third-largest manufacturer, following its acquisition of the Winston and Blu brands), Germany, the UK, Spain, and Australia. The firm also holds a leading global position in the fine-cut tobacco and hand-rolling paper categories. It has a logistics platform in Western Europe, Altadis.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XTER:ITB

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€32.37
Price
€20.82
GF Value