ABG (Asbury Automotive Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Asbury Automotive Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Asbury Automotive Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Asbury Automotive Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Asbury Automotive Group Inc (NYSE:ABG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2905 Premiere Parkway NW, Suite 300, Duluth, GA, USA, 30097

Website

https://www.asburyauto.com

Asbury Automotive Group is a regional collection of automobile dealerships that went public in March 2002. The company operates 155 new-vehicle stores and 37 collision centers. Over 70% of new-vehicle revenue is from luxury and import brands. Asbury also offers third-party financing and insurance products and its own F&I products via Total Care Auto. Asbury operates in 15 states (mostly Texas, the West, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southeast). Asbury store brands include McDavid and Park Place in Texas, Koons in the Washington, D.C. area, and the Larry H. Miller brand in the Western US. Asbury generated $14.8 billion of revenue in 2023 and is based in the Atlanta area. The firm targets at least $30 billion of revenue sometime between 2025 and 2030.

Executives

Daniel Clara	officer: SVP, Operations	C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, STE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Nathan Edward Briesemeister	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
David W Hult	officer: EVP & COO	800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Jed Milstein	officer: VP & CHRO	2905 PREMIERE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Miran Maric	officer: SVP, Strategy & Innovation	C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Philip F Maritz	director	C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, STE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
George A Villasana	officer: VP & General Counsel	2905 PREMIERE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Bridget Ryan Berman	director	161 FALCON ROAD, GUILFORD CT 06437
Terry Hilliard C. Iii	director	ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Michael Welch	officer: SVP & CFO	C/O ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, 2905 PREMIERE PKWY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
David C Abrams	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Abrams Capital Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Abrams Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY ST., 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Abrams Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Abrams Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 21ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116