ADV (Advantage Solutions) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Advantage Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Advantage Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Advantage Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Advantage Solutions's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Advantage Solutions Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Advantage Solutions Inc (NAS:ADV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8001 Forsyth Boulevard, Suite, Clayton, MS, USA, 63105

Website

https://www.youradv.com

Advantage Solutions Inc is a omnichannel retail solutions agency in North America, uniquely positioned at the intersection of consumer-packaged goods (CPG) brands and retailers.

Executives

James M Kilts	director	120 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Christopher Growe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 15310 BARRANCA PARKWAY, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92618
Deborah Poole	director	ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 1530 BARRANCA PARKWAY, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92618
David A Peacock	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	190 CARONDELET PLAZA, CLAYTON MO 63105
Brian K. Ratzan	director	3 GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06831
Adam Levyn	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Jody L Macedonio	director	2711 N HASKELL AVENUE, STE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
Christopher J Baldwin	director	THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Adam Nebesar	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Tanya L Domier	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Jill L Griffin	officer: President & CCO	C/O ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, IRVINE CA 92612
Dean Kaye	officer: CFO - North America	ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, IRVINE CA 92612
Brian Stevens	officer: CFO & COO	C/O ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 18100 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, IRVINE CA 92612
David J West	director	100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Robin Manherz	director	ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC., 1530 BARRANCA PARKWAY, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92618