ALTO (Alto Ingredients) Predictability Rank

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What is Alto Ingredients Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alto Ingredients Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alto Ingredients Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Alto Ingredients Inc (NAS:ALTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FPRP:Germany FPR:Germany

Address

1300 South Second Street, Pekin, IL, USA, 61554

Website

https://www.altoingredients.com

Alto Ingredients Inc is a producer of specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. The company serves five markets: Health, Home and Beauty, Food and Beverage, Essential Ingredients, and Renewable Fuels. Its customers include major food and beverage companies and consumer products manufacturers and distributors. The company operates under three segments: Marketing and distribution, Pekin Campus production, Western production, and Others.

Executives

Gilbert E Nathan	director	C/O EMERGENT CAPITAL, INC., 5355 TOWN CENTER ROAD, SUITE 701, BOCA RATON FL 33486
Robert R. Olander	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1300 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PEKIN IL 61554
Bryon T Mcgregor	officer: Interim CFO	400 CAPITAL MALL, #2060, SACRAMENTO CA 95814
Auste M Graham	officer: Gen. Counsel, VP & Secy	C/O ALTO INGREDIENTS, INC., 1300 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PEKIN IL 61554
Maria G Gray	director	C/O ALTO INGREDIENTS, INC., 1300 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PEKIN IL 61554
Christopher W Wright	officer: VP, General Counsel, & Secy	C/O PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC., 5711 N. WEST AVENUE, FRESNO CA 93711
William L Jones	10 percent owner	5711 N. WEST AVENUE, FRESNO CA 93711
James R Sneed	officer: VP of Ethanol Supply & Trading	AVENTINE RENEWABLE ENERGY HOLDINGS, INC., 1300 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PEKIN IL 61555
Neil M Koehler	director, officer: CEO, President	PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC., 5711 N. WEST AVENUE, FRESNO CA 93711
Douglas L Kieta	director	17831 SHADOW VALLEY DRIVE, SPRING TX 77379
Winston Mar	officer: Chief Restructuring Officer	46 PENINSULA CENTER #188, ROLLING HILLS ESTATES CA 90274
Dianne S. Nury	director	C/O PACIFIC ETHANOL INC., 400 CAPITOL MALL, SUITE 2060, SACRAMENTO CA 95814
Michael D Kandris	director	400 CAPITAL MALL, #2060, SACRAMENTO CA 95814
Paul Koehler	officer: VP of Corporate Development	C/O TOWERSTREAM CORPORATION, 55 HAMMARLUND WAY, MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Larry D Layne	director	C/O PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC., 400 CAPITOL MALL, #2060, SACRAMENTO CA 95814