AMPE (Ampio Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Ampio Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ampio Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ampio Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ampio Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:AMPE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9800 Mount Pyramid Court, Suite 400, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112

Website

https://www.ampiopharma.com

Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the development of a potential treatment for osteoarthritis of the knee ("OAK") as part of its OA-201 development program ("OA-201 program" or "OA-201").

Executives

J Kevin Buchi	director	41 MOORES ROAD, FRAZER PA 19355
Michael A Martino	director	C/O AMBIT BIOSCIENCES CORPORATION, 11080 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David R Stevens	director	300 ELLIOTT AVENUE WEST, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98119-4114
Elizabeth Varki Jobes	director	640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Philip H Coelho	director	C/O THERMOGENESIS CORP, 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Holli Cherevka	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 373 IVERNESS PARKWAY, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Dan Stokely	officer: CFO	4810 EASTGATE MALL, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Chilcott, Iii Thomas E.	officer: Chief Financial Officer	373 INVERNESS PARKWAY, ENGLEWOOD CO 80122
Gregory A Gould	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1111 MAIN STREET, SUITE 660, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Joshua R. Disbrow	officer: Chief Operating Officer	AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 5445 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 925, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Michael Macaluso	director	C/O AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 5445 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 925, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Richard B Giles	director	5445 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 925, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
David Bar-or	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O AMPIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 373 INVERNESS PARKWAY, SUITE 200, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Vaughan Lennox Clift	officer: Chief Regulatory Affairs	807 NOBLE SPRINGS ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77062
Mark D Mcgregor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5445 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 925, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111