ASMB (Assembly Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Assembly Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Assembly Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Assembly Biosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Assembly Biosciences Inc (NAS:ASMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

V7B:Germany V7B:Germany

Address

Two Tower Place, 7th Floor, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.assemblybio.com

Assembly Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It is advancing two platform programs, a novel class of oral therapeutics for the treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and novel class of oral synthetic live biotherapeutics, which are designed to restore health to a dysbiotic microbiome. The company's HBV-cure program is aimed at increasing the current low cure rate for patients with HBV and is pursuing multiple drug candidates that inhibit multiple steps of the HBV lifecycle. Assembly has discovered several novel core protein Allosteric Modulators, which are small molecules that directly target and allosterically modulate the HBV core protein. The majority of the revenue is generated from the HBV cure program.

Executives

Nicole S White	officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 331 OYSTER POINT BLVD., FOURTH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jeanette M Bjorkquist	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 331 OYSTER POINT BLVD, FOURTH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John G Mchutchison	director, officer: CEO and President	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY X1 94404
Jason A Okazaki	officer: Chief Legal & Business Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 331 OYSTER POINT BLVD, FOURTH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michael Houghton	director	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 331 OYSTER POINT BLVD., FOURTH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gilead Sciences Inc	10 percent owner	333 LAKESIDE DR, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Alexander Schornstein	10 percent owner	KAISER-FRIEDRICH-ALLEE 2, AACHEN 2M 52074
Delaney William E Iv	officer: CSO, Virology	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 331 OYSTER POINT BLVD, FOURTH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michael P. Samar	officer: See Remarks	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 11711 N. MERIDIAN ST. SUITE 310, CARMEL IN 46032
Luisa M Stamm	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 11711 N. MERIDIAN ST, SUITE 310, CARMEL IN 46032
Lisa Johnson-pratt	director	C/O TRACON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4350 LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Jacqueline Sybil Papkoff	officer: See remarks	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 11711 N. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 310, CARMEL IN 46032
Gina Consylman	director	C/O IRONWOOD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 100 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 2300, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard James Colonno	officer: Chief Science Officer	ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 409 ILLINOIS STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Thomas Joseph Russo	officer: CFO	C/O ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 11711 N MERIDIAN ST, SUITE 310, CARMEL IN 46032