BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:BCRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BCRX:Mexico BO1:Germany BO1:Germany

Address

4505 Emperor Boulevard, Suite 200, Durham, NC, USA, 27703

Website

http://www.biocryst.com

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biotechnology company involved mainly in the research and development of novel small-molecule drugs, with the aim of blocking key enzymes involved in infectious and inflammatory diseases. Biocryst's research is based on multiple scientific disciplines like biology, computer modeling, and medicinal chemistry. Its products and candidates target the following therapeutic areas: acute uncomplicated influenza; uncomplicated seasonal influenza; hereditary angioedema; filoviruses, including the Ebola and Marburg viruses; and oncology.

Executives

Machelle Sanders	director	C/O NOVAN, INC., 4105 HOPSON ROAD, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Nancy J Hutson	director	64 MONTAUK AVENUE, STONINGTON CT 06378
Helen M. Thackray	director	C/O GLYCOMIMETICS, INC., 401 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Jon P Stonehouse	director, officer: CEO	2190 PARKWAY LAKE DR, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244
Charles K Gayer	officer: Vice President and CCO	4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Michael L Jones	officer: Exec Director, Finance - PAO	4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Alane P Barnes	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	1929 BRASSFIELD ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27614
Anthony Doyle	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Yarlagadda S Babu	officer: VP Drug Discovery	2190 PARKWAY LAKE DR, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244
George B Abercrombie	director	C/O INSPIRE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4222 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
William P Sheridan	officer: SR VP - CMO	2190 PARKWAY LAKE DR, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244
Vincent Milano	director	C/O VIROPHARMA INC, 405 EAGLEVIEW BLVD, EXTON PA 19341
Amy E Mckee	director	4505 EMPEROR BLVD, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703
Lee Kenneth B Jr	director	7100 WEST CREDIT AVENUE, SUITE 101, C/O ARALEZ PHARMACEUTICALS INC., MISSISSAUGA A6 L5N 0E4
Steven K Galson	director	C/O BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4505 EMPEROR BLVD, SUITE 200, DURHAM NC 27703