What is Bio-Path Holdings Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Bio-Path Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Bio-Path Holdings Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4710 Bellaire Boulevard, Suite 210, Bellaire, TX, USA, 77401
Bio-Path Holdings Inc is a clinical and preclinical stage oncology-focused RNAi nanoparticle drug development company. It is engaged in utilizing a novel technology that achieves systemic delivery for target-specific protein inhibition for any gene product that is over-expressed in disease. The company's drug candidate, prexigebersen, is in the efficacy portion of a Phase 2 clinical trial for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in combination with low-dose cytarabine (LDAC) and combination with decitabine. The other drugs of the company are BP1002, BP1003, BP1001-A, and DNABILIZE.
Executives
| Aline Sherwood |
director |
347 BRANDYWINE DRIVE, IRWIN PA 15642 |
| Tamaro Martina Molsbergen |
director |
1307 SUMMERHILL DRIVE, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Mark P Colonnese |
director |
4674 ANDREA POINTE, MARIETTA GA 30062 |
| Peter Henry Nielsen |
director, officer: President, CEO & CFO |
20651 PRINCE CREEK, KATY TX 77450 |
| Paul Aubert |
director |
4710 BELLAIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, BELLAIRE TX 77401 |
| Armistice Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC, 510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Steven Boyd |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Heath Cleaver |
director |
4010 BALSAM FIR LN., SPRING TX 77386 |
| Ulrich W. Mueller |
officer: COO & Secretary |
17841 6TH AVE NW, SHORELINE WA 98177 |
| Amy Sing |
director |
C/O SAETTLE GENETICS INC, 21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021 |
| Michael J. Garrison |
director |
2626 SOUTH LOOP, SUITE 180, HOUSTON TX 77054 |
| Douglas P Morris |
director |
550 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 3206, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Gillian C Ivers-read |
director |
C/O PHARMION CORPORATION, 2525 28TH STREET, BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Thomas E Garrison |
director |
P O BOX 150248, OGDEN UT 84415 |
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