CMMB (Chemomab Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Chemomab Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chemomab Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chemomab Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd (NAS:CMMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2QV0:Germany

Address

Kiryat Atidim, Building 7, Tel Aviv, ISR, 6158002

Website

https://www.chemomab.com

Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd is a clinical-stage biotech company, focusing on the discovery and development of therapeutics for fibrosis-related diseases with large unmet needs. The company's candidate, CM-101, is a monoclonal antibody that targets CCL24 and was shown to interfere with the underlying biology of liver, skin and lung fibrosis using a novel and differentiated mechanism of action. CM-101 has demonstrated the potential to treat multiple severe and life threatening fibrotic and inflammatory diseases. It is advancing three Phase 2 clinical trials in parallel for CM-101 treating rare fibrotic conditions.

Executives

Orbimed Israel Biofund Gp Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 1022-4629
George Adi Mor	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	15 KAFRISIN ST., TEL AVIV L3 6901658
Neil Harris Cohen	director	C/O ANCHIANO THERAPEUTICS LTD., ONE KENDALL SQ., BLDG 1400E, STE 14-105, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Matthew Bejosa Frankel	officer: Chief Medical Officer	672 PROSPECT AVE., PRINCETON NJ 08540
Jill M. Quigley	director	TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, 28TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Joel Michael Maryles	director	5 ATZMON ST., HASHMONAIM L3 7312700
Donald Marvin	officer: Executive VP, CFO & COO	2094 LOST CANYON RANCH CT, CASTLE ROCK CO 80104
Dale R Pfost	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ACUITY PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 3701 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Nissim Darvish	director	C/O INNOVATE BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 8480 HONEYCUTT ROAD, SUITE 120, RALEIGH NC 27615
Peter Thiel	10 percent owner	9200 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE 1110, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Sigal Fatal	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16 KANFEY NESHARIM ST., RAMAT GAN L3 5235716
Arnon Aharon	officer: Chief Medical Officer	12 YAVNE ST., TEL AVIV L3 6579116
Alan Charles Moses	director	C/O 7 PINHAS SAPIR ST., FLOOR 2, NESS ZIONA L3 7414002
Stephen P Squinto	director	C/O ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 352 KNOTTER DRIVE, CHESHIRE CT 06410
Orbimed Israel Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4629