CODA (Coda Octopus Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Coda Octopus Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coda Octopus Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Coda Octopus Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Coda Octopus Group Inc (NAS:CODA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3300 S Hiawassee Road, Suite 104-105, Orlando, FL, USA, 32835

Website

https://www.codaoctopusgroup.com

Coda Octopus Group Inc develops underwater technologies and equipment for imaging, mapping defense, and survey applications. The company's operations are organized into two reportable segments: the Products Segment (Marine Technology Business serving the subsea market and PAL, which sells other products (acoustic hydrophones and acoustic materials to a different market); and the Services Segment (Marine Engineering Business). Its geographical segments are the Americas, Europe, Australia/Asia, and the Middle East/Africa. The majority of revenue is derived from the Products segment.

Executives

Annmarie Gayle	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6526 COTTONWOOD ST,, MURRAY UT 84107
Niels Soendergaard	10 percent owner	6526 COTTONWOOD ST, MURRAY UT 84107
G Tyler Runnels	10 percent owner	1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS, STE 2030, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
John Steven Emerson	10 percent owner	1522 ENSLEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Anthony Jean Tata	director	1 WATER CLUB WAY,, PH2104, NORTH PALM BEACH FL 33408
Robert Ronald Harcourt	director	3078 BRINE WAY, THE VILLAGES FL 32163
Gayle Michelle Jardine	officer: Interim CFO.	12 RAVELRIG GAIT,, BALERNO, EDINBURGH X0 EH14 7NH
Blair Graeme Cunningham	officer: Chief Technology Officer	164 WEST 25TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Nathan William Parker	officer: Chief Financial Officer.	14061 S. OLD SADDLE RD, DRAPER UT 84020
Kevin James Kane	officer: CEO Coda Octopus Colmek, Inc.	11864 VISTA GLEN CT, SANDY UT 84092
Michael Midgley	officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	6526 COTTONWOOD ST,, MURRAY UT 84107
Michael J. Hamilton	director	NEWPORT OFFICE CENTER, 111 TOWN SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 1201, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Bryan Ezralow	10 percent owner	THE EZRALOW CO, LLC, 23622 CALABASAS ROAD, SUITE 200, CALABASAS CA 91302-1549
Mary Losty	director	613 LOCUST ST, CAMBRIDGE MD 21613
Joseph Charles Plumb	director	3917, FAIRBREEZE CIR, WESTLAKE VLG CA 91361