CPMV (Mosaic ImmunoEngineering) Predictability Rank

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What is Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Inc (OTCPK:CPMV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9114 Adams Avenue, Suite 202, Huntington Beach, CA, USA, 92646

Website

https://www.mosaicie.com

Mosaic ImmunoEngineering Inc is a development-stage biotechnology company focused on bridging immunology and engineering to develop novel immunotherapies to treat and prevent cancer and infectious diseases. It has a single operating segment for the purposes of assessing performance and making operating decisions.

Executives

Robert Baffi	director	C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 105 DIGITAL DRIVE, NOVATO CA 94949
Case Western Reserve University	10 percent owner	10900 EUCLID AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44106
Steven W King	director, officer: President and CEO
Paul J Lytle	director, officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer
Robert L Garnick	director	C/O PATRIOT SCIENTIFIC, 2038 CORTE DEL NOGAL, SUITE 141, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Nicole Franziska Steinmetz	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	871 WILBUR AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92019
Dharmesh Mistry	director	315 PEMBROKE COURT, SAN RAMON CA 94582
Carlton M Johnson	director
Donald E Schrock	director	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Paul R Bibeau	officer: VP, Business Development	MICROSEMI CORP, 2381 MORSE AVE, IRVINE CA 92614
Frederick C Goerner	officer: Chief Executive Officer	MICROSEMI CORPORATION, ONE ENTERPRISE, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Clifford L Flowers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BAKBONE SOFTWARE, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Harry L Tredennick	director	6183 PASEO DEL NORTE #180, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Thomas J Sweeney	officer: CFO
Helmut Jr Falk	director