What is Custom Truck One Source Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Custom Truck One Source Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Custom Truck One Source Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
7701 Independence Avenue, Kansas, MO, USA, 64125
Custom Truck One Source Inc is a one-stop-shop provider of specialty equipment in the electric utility transmission and distribution, forestry, telecom, waste management, rail, and infrastructure end-markets in North America. The company's segment includes Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS), Truck and Equipment Sales (TES), and Aftermarket Parts and Services (APS). It generates maximum revenue from the TES segment. Geographically, it derives a majority revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Platinum Equity Llc |
10 percent owner |
360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210 |
| Pe One Source Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
360 N. CRESCENT DRIVE, SOUTH BUILDING, BEVERLY HILLS CA 09210 |
| Nesco Holdings, Lp |
10 percent owner |
51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Ecp Controlco, Llc |
10 percent owner |
40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Energy Capital Partners Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078 |
| Joe P. Ross |
officer: President - Sales |
C/O NESCO HOLDINGS, INC., 6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804 |
| Thomas R. Rich |
officer: EVP - Rentals |
C/O NESCO HOLDINGS, INC., 6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804 |
| Marshall Heinberg |
director |
1 CORPORATE AVENUE, ROWVILLE C3 3178 |
| Georgia R Nelson |
director |
C/O TOWER AUTOMOTIVE INC, 27175 HAGGERTY ROAD, NOVI MI 48377-3626 |
| Ryan Mcmonagle |
officer: President, COO |
C/O NESCO HOLDINGS, INC., 6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804 |
| Raymond Todd Barrett |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
6714 POINT INVERNESS WAY, STE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804 |
| Christopher J Eperjesy |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, PLYMOUTH MN 55441 |
| Mark Ein |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO |
|
| Paul M Jolas |
officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec |
331 N. MAIN ST., EULESS TX 76039 |
| Mary M. Jackson |
director |
7799 LEESBURG PIKE, SUITE 300 NORTH, FALLS CHURCH VA 22043 |
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