Carvana Co (Carvana Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Carvana Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Carvana Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Carvana Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Carvana Co (Carvana Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CVNA:Mexico CV0:Germany CV0:Germany CV0:Germany

Address

300 E. Rio Salado Parkway, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281

Website

https://www.carvana.com

Carvana Co is an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. The company derives revenue from used vehicle sales, wholesale vehicle sales and other sales and revenues. The other sales and revenues include sales of loans originated and sold in securitization transactions or to financing partners, commissions received on VSCs and sales of GAP waiver coverage. The foundation of the business is retail vehicle unit sales. This drives the majority of the revenue and allows the company to capture additional revenue streams associated with financing, VSCs, auto insurance and GAP waiver coverage, as well as trade-in vehicles.

Executives

Paul W. Breaux	officer: See Remarks	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Ecg Ii Spe, Llc	10 percent owner	1720 W. RIO SALADO PARKWAY, SUITE A, TEMPE AZ 85281
Thomas Taira	officer: President, Special Projects	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Daniel J. Gill	officer: Chief Product Officer	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Gregory B Sullivan	director	1930 W. RIO SALADO PARKWAY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Ira J. Platt	director	65 STURGES HWY, WESTPORT CT 06880
Michael E Maroone	director	909 POINCIANA DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Garcia Ernest C Ii	10 percent owner	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75201
Ryan S. Keeton	officer: Chief Brand Officer	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
J Danforth Quayle	director	1930 W. RIO SALADO PARKWAY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Garcia Ernest C. Iii	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Benjamin E. Huston	officer: Chief Operating Officer	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Mark W. Jenkins	officer: Chief Financial Officer	300 E RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Stephen R Palmer	officer: Vice President of Accounting	1930 W RIO SALADO PKWY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Neha Parikh	director	1930 W. RIO SALADO PARKWAY, TEMPE AZ 85281