DKL (Delek Logistics Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Delek Logistics Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Delek Logistics Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Delek Logistics Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Delek Logistics Partners LP Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Delek Logistics Partners LP (NYSE:DKL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

310 Seven Springs Way, Suite 500, Brentwood, TN, USA, 37027

Website

https://www.deleklogistics.com

Delek Logistics Partners LP owns and operates logistics and marketing assets for crude oil and intermediate and refined products. The company's segment includes gathering and processing; wholesale marketing and terminalling; storage and transportation and investment in pipeline joint ventures. It generates maximum revenue from the wholesale marketing and terminalling segment, which provides marketing services for the refined products output of the Delek Holdings' refineries, engages in wholesale activity at its terminals and terminals owned by third parties, whereby it purchases light product for sale and exchange to third parties, and provides terminalling services at its refined products terminals to independent third parties and Delek Holdings.

Executives

Ezra Uzi Yemin	director, officer: Chairman / CEO	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Avigal Soreq	officer: Executive Vice President	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Joseph Israel	officer: EVP, Operations	7616 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75251
Odely Sakazi	officer: Senior Vice President	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Reuven Spiegel	director	1530 PALISADE AVENUE, APT. 24-L, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Sherri Anne Brillon	director	500 CENTRE STREET SE, CALGARY A0 T2P 2S5
Brown Charles J Iii	director	524 ROOKWOOD PLACE, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22903
Todd O'malley	officer: EVP Chief Operating Officer	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Delek Us Holdings, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Robert G. Wright	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Francis C. D'andrea	director	70 NORTH WINDSAIL PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Nilah Staskus	officer: EVP, Chief Accounting Officer	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Denise Clark Mcwatters	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	1702 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Delek Logistics Services Co	director, 10 percent owner	7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Gennifer F. Kelly	director	1702 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027