DLR (Digital Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Digital Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Digital Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Digital Realty Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Digital Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:DLR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DLRpL.PFD:USA DLRpK.PFD:USA DLRpJ.PFD:USA DLR:Mexico 0I9F:UK FQI:Germany FQI:Germany D1LR34:Brazil

Address

5707 Southwest Parkway, Building 1, Suite 275, Austin, TX, USA, 78735

Website

https://www.digitalrealty.com

Digital Realty owns and operates over 300 data centers worldwide. It has nearly 40 million rentable square feet across five continents. Digital's offerings range from retail co-location, where an enterprise may rent a single cabinet and rely on Digital to provide all the accommodations, to "cold shells," where hyperscale cloud service providers can simply rent much, or all, of a barren, power-connected building. In recent years, Digital Realty has de-emphasized cold shells and now primarily provides higher-level service to tenants, which outsource their related IT needs to Digital. The company operates as a real estate investment trust.

Executives

Mandeville Jean F H P	director	C/O INTERXION, SCORPIUS 30, HOOFDDORP P7 2132 LR
Cindy Fiedelman	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO X1 94111
Peter C. Olson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5707 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 1, SUITE 275, AUSTIN TX 78735
Dyer Corey	officer: EVP, Global Sales & Marketing	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Christopher Sharp	officer: Chief Technology Officer	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Jeannie Lee	officer: EVP, General Counsel	5707 SOUTHWEST PARKWAY, BUILDING 1, SUITE 275, AUSTIN TX 78735
A William Stein	officer: CFO And CIO	DIGITAL REALTY TRUST, INC., FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
David C Ruberg	officer: MANAGING DIRECTOR, EUROPE	16057 TAMPA PALMS BLVD WEST, #405, TAMPA FL 33647
Kevin Kennedy	director
William G Laperch	director	360 HAMILTON AVE, C/O ABOVENET INC, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Joshua Ananda Mills	officer: General Counsel	C/O KKR & CO. INC., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Camilla A. Harris	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	8020 PARK LANE, DALLAS TX 75231
Andrew Power	officer: Chief Financial Officer	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 3200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Michael A Coke	director	TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION, 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Matt Mercier	officer: SVP, Finance and Accounting	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111