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Central Energy Partners LP (Central Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Central Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Central Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Central Energy Partners LP (Central Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Central Energy Partners LP (GREY:ENGY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PGAS SNMP MRGE SGX:5PD BSE:OIL HKSE:08117 BKEP HKSE:00681 ASX:MTN DLNG ASX:LNG SGX:C9Q TSXV:MCR NNA USWS GASS OSG OSL:SIOFF BSE:COTE MMLP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4809 Cole Avenue, Suite 108, Dallas, TX, USA, 75205
Website
http://www.centralenergylp.com
Central Energy Partners LP provides liquid bulk storage, trans-loading, and transportation services for hazardous chemicals and petroleum products. Its key activities include the storage, transportation and railcar trans-loading of bulk liquids, including hazardous chemicals and petroleum products. It transports a range of hazardous products, such as aluminum sulfate solution, hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, aqua ammonia, sodium bisulfate and fuel blends.
Executives
Alan D Bell director C/O DUNE ENERGY, INC., TWO SHELL PLAZA, 777 WALKER STREET, SUITE 2300, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ian T Bothwell officer: EVP, CFO & Secretary 77 530 ENFIELD LANE, BLDG D, PALM DESERT CA 92211
David M. Laney director 901 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3601, DALLAS TX 75202
Jerry V Swank director 3300 OAK LAWN AVENUE, SUITE 650, DALLAS TX 75219
Daniel L Spears director C/O EMERALD OIL, INC., 200 COLUMBINE, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80206
Imad K. Anbouba director, officer: General Partner 10440 N CENTRAL EXPWAY, SUITE 1010, DALLAS TX 75231
Cushing Mlp Opportunity Fund I, Lp 10 percent owner 8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225
Bruce I Raben director 430 VICTORIA TERRACE, RIDGEFIELD NJ 7657
Cushing Mlp Asset Management, Lp 10 percent owner 600 NORTH PEARL STREET, SUITE 1205, DALLAS TX 75201
Swank Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 8117 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 440, DALLAS TX 75225

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