EPRT (Essential Properties Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Essential Properties Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Essential Properties Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Essential Properties Realty Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:EPRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2OU:Germany

Address

902 Carnegie Center Boulevard, Suite 520, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540

Website

https://www.essentialproperties.com

Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust. It is an internally managed real estate company acquires, owns and manages single-tenant properties that are net leased on a long-term basis to middle-market companies operating service-oriented or experience-based businesses. The Company generally invests in and leases freestanding, single-tenant commercial real estate facilities where a tenant services its customers and conducts activities that are essential to the generation of the tenant's sales and profits.

Executives

Peter M. Mavoides	director, officer: President and CEO	902 CARNEGIE CENTER BLVD., SUITE 520, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Stephen D Sautel	director	C/O HORIZON ACQUISITION, 600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, SUITE 200, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mark E Patten	officer: Executive VP and CFO	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Timothy J Earnshaw	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	902 CARNEGIE CENTER BLVD., SUITE 520, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Gregg A Seibert	officer: Executive VP and COO	902 CARNEGIE CENTER BLVD., SUITE 520, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Lawrence J Minich	director	5760 N. CALLE DE LOS CAMARONES, TUSCON AZ 85718
Scott A Estes	director	WELLTOWER INC., 4500 DORR STREET, TOLEDO OH 43615
Anthony K. Dobkin	director	195 BOWERY, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10002
Heather Leed Neary	director	973 BUCKWALTER ROAD, LITITZ PA 17543
Paul T Bossidy	director	3135 EASTON TURNPIKE, FAIRFIELD CT 06828
Janaki Sivanesan	director	575 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Eldridge Industries, Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Todd L Boehly	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eprt Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	902 CARNEGIE CENTER BLVD., SUITE 520, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Daniel P Donlan	officer: Senior VP - Capital Markets	2021 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1150, DALLAS TX 75201