ITT Educational Services (ITT Educational Services) Predictability Rank

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What is ITT Educational Services Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ITT Educational Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ITT Educational Services (ITT Educational Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » ITT Educational Services Inc (OTCPK:ESINQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13000 North Meridian Street, Carmel, IN, USA, 46032-1404

Website

http://www.ittesi.com

ITT Educational Services Inc is a United States based proprietary provider of postsecondary degree programs in the United States based on revenue and student enrollment. The company provides technology-oriented undergraduate and graduate degree programs through its accredited postsecondary institutions, ITT Technical Institutes and Daniel Webster College, to help students develop skills and knowledge that can be used to pursue career opportunities in a variety of fields.

Executives

Tarasi Rocco F Iii	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O ITT EDUCATIONAL SERVICES INC, 13000 NORTH MERIDIAN STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
June M Mccormack	officer: EVP & President Online Div	13000 NORTH MERIDIAN STREET, CARMEL IN 46032
Brown C David Ii	director	3000 GALLERIA TOWER, STE 1000, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244
Thomas I Morgan	director	30541 CARNEY CREEK ROAD, BIGFORK MT 59911
Joanna T Lau	director	30 MONUMENT SQUARE, SUITE 220, CONCORD MA 01742
Ryan L Roney	officer: EVP,Chief Admin&Legal Officer	1541 REYNOLDS ROAD, CHARLOTTE MI 48813
Richard C Blum & Associates Inc	10 percent owner	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Blum Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Blum Strategic Gp Iii, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Blum Strategic Gp Iv, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	909 MONTOGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Saddlepoint Partners Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Jeffrey R Cooper	officer: SVP, Chief Compliance Officer	231 N. MARTINGALE ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Blum Strategic Gp Ii Llc	10 percent owner	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Rand V Araskog	director	-, 125 WORTH AVENUE, SUITE 300, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Richard C Blum	10 percent owner	BLUM CAPITAL PARTNERS, LP, 909 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133