National Beverage (National Beverage) Predictability Rank

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What is National Beverage Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

National Beverage Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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National Beverage (National Beverage) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » National Beverage Corp (NAS:FIZZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

20V:Germany

Address

8100 SW Tenth Street, Suite 4000, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33324

Website

https://www.nationalbeverage.com

National Beverage Corp is a non-alcoholic beverage company in the U.S. Its portfolio skews toward functional drinks (that is those purporting to offer health benefits) and is anchored by the popular LaCroix sparkling water trademark. Other offerings include Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh juices, and soda brands like Shasta and Faygo. The firm controls the majority of its production and distribution apparatus, with very little outsourcing. In terms of go-to-market, it uses warehouse distribution for big-box retailers, direct-store delivery for convenience stores and other small outlets, and food-service distributors for the food-service channel (schools, hospitals, restaurants). It is controlled by chairman and CEO Nick Caporella, who owns over 73% of the common stock.

Executives

Cecil D Conlee	director	950 E PACES FERRY RD, SUITE 2275, ATLANTA GA 30326
Stanley Michael Sheridan	director	6203 PLUM DRIVE, WILLIAMSBURG MI 49690
Nick A Caporella	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB & CEO	ONE NORTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, BUILDING A, 4TH FLOOR, PLANTATION FL 33324
Joseph G Caporella	director, officer: President	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Dennis L Thompson	officer: EVP - Shasta Beverages, Inc.	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Gregory P Cook	officer: VP - CONTROLLER & CAO	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Samuel C Hathorn	director	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Gregory I Roberts	officer: EVP - National BevPak	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
George R Bracken	officer: EVP Finance	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Hagan John Ronald Jr	officer: SEVP, Shasta Beverages, Inc.	8100 SW 10TH STREET, SUITE 4000, PLANTATION FL 33324
Kloch Joseph P Jr	director	ONE NORTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, BUILDING A, 4TH FLOOR, PLANTATION FL 33324
Dean A Mccoy	officer: Senior VP-Controller	ONE NORTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, BUILDING A, 4TH FLOOR, PLANTATION FL 33324
Edward F Knecht	officer: EVP - Procurement	ONE NORTH UNIVERSITY DRIVE, BUILDING A,, 4TH FLOOR, PLANTATION FL 33324
S Lee Kling	director	1401 S BRENTWOOD BLVD, ST LOUIS MO 63144