F N B (FNB) Predictability Rank

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What is F N B Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

F N B Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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F N B (FNB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » F N B Corp (NYSE:FNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FNBpE.PFD:USA FN2:Germany

Address

12 Federal Street, One North Shore Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212

Website

https://www.fnb-online.com

F N B Corp has three reportable business segments: Community Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance. The majority of revenue is from the Community banking segment. It offers commercial & consumer banking services. Commercial banking solutions include corporate banking, small business banking, investment real estate financing, business credit, capital markets & lease financing. Consumer banking products & services include deposit products, mortgage lending, & consumer lending & a complete suite of mobile & online banking services. The group have Banking branches in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, D.C. & Virginia. A majority of FNB's loan portfolio is in commercial real estate, while the majority of its revenue is net interest income.

Executives

William B Campbell	director	R.D. #2, 45 ROMAIN ROAD, PULASKI PA 16143
Pamela A Bena	director	105 PARK AVE, VENETIA PA 15367
David J Malone	director	5004 MCKNIGHT ROAD, PITTSBURGH PA 15237
James Orie	officer: Chief Legal Officer, other: Corporate Secretary
Bryant Mitchell	officer: Chief Wholesale Banking Office	12 FEDERAL STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Vincent J Calabrese	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PEOPLE'S BANK, 850 MAIN STREET, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604
James L Dutey	officer: Corporate Controller	100 7TH STREET, APT. 1507, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Barry C Robinson	officer: Chief Consumer Banking Officer	8285 WEMBLEY COURT, CHAGRIN FALLS OH 44023
Gary L Guerrieri	officer: Chief Credit Officer	163 DODD DR, WASHINGTON PA 15301-9528
William J Strimbu	director	C/O FNB CORP, 2150 GOODLETTE RD. N., NAPLES FL 34102
Robert M Moorehead	officer: Chief WholesaleBanking Officer	3323 SCATHELOCKE ROAD, PITTSBURGH PA 15235
Frank C Mencini	director	21574 AWBREY PLACE, BROADLANDS VA 20148
Heidi A Nicholas	director	210 WEST HAMILTON AVE, #360, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801
David L Motley	director	517 AVONWORTH HEIGHTS DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 151237
John S Stanik	director