FNGR (FingerMotion) Predictability Rank

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What is FingerMotion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FingerMotion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FingerMotion Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » FingerMotion Inc (NAS:FNGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 Somerset Road, Level 3, Singapore, SGP, 238164

Website

https://www.fingermotion.com

FingerMotion Inc is engaged in the provision of mobile payment and recharge services in the Chinese market. The company business line includes Telecommunications Products and Services; Value Added Products and Services; Short Message Services (SMS) and Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS); a Rich Communication Services (RCS) platform; Big Data Insights; and a Video Games Division (inactive). It principally earns revenue by providing mobile payment and recharge services to customers of telecommunications companies in China.

Executives

Yew Poh Leong	director	61 SPRINGSIDE VIEW, SINGAPORE U0 786060
Martin Chung-wen Shen	officer: CEO and CFO	1322 W. KING EDWARD AVE., VANCOUVER A1 V6H 1Z9
Chee Ming Cheong	10 percent owner	UNIT A 19/F TIMES MEDIA CENTRE, 133 WAN CHAI ROAD, WAN CHAI K3 --
Eng Ho Ng	director	159 JALAN KAMPONG CHANTEK, SINGAPORE U0 587887
Yew Hon Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	NO 5, JALAN BRP 3/3C, SUNWAY RAHMAN PUTR, SEKSYEN U20, SHAH ALAM., SELANGOR N8 40160
Yang Yeat Choe	10 percent owner	6-9-1 V SQUARE PJ CITY CENTRE, JALAN UTARA, PETALING JAYA, SELANGOR N8 46200
Chan Michael K H	director	15-07, 70 BAYSHORE ROAD, COSTA DEL SOL U0 469987
Charles Thomas Mcmillen	director	1103 SOUTH CAROLINA AVENUE, WASHINGTON DC 20003
Hsien Loong Wong	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO, and Director	6 WINDSOR PARK HILL, SINGAPORE U0 574198
Michael Thomas Brigante	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President, CFO	17 DANIEL DRIVE, HILLSBOROUGH NJ 08844