Zep (FRA:14Z) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Zep Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zep Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zep Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Zep's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Zep (FRA:14Z) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Zep Inc (FRA:14Z) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.zepinc.com

Zep Inc. was founded in 1937. It is a producer, marketer, and service provider of a range of cleaning and maintenance solutions for commercial, industrial, institutional, and consumer end-markets. Zeps product portfolio includes anti-bacterial and industrial hand care products, cleaners, degreasers, deodorizers, disinfectants, floor finishes, sanitizers, and pest and weed control products. It continually refreshes its product portfolio and service offerings. Zep reaches its customers through an experienced, international organization of sales representatives supported by highly skilled marketing, research and development and technical services teams, who collectively provide creative solutions for its customers' diverse cleaning and maintenance needs by utilizing their product expertise and providing customized value added services that it distinguish Zep among its competitors. Through its direct sales organization, Zep provides convenient, highly effective cleaning and maintenance solutions to customers in a broad array of commercial, industrial, and institutional end-markets, including transportation, food processing and service, manufacturing, government, and housekeeping. These customers include government entities and businesses ranging from small sole proprietorships to large corporations. It sells its products to customers mainly in the United States, Canada and Western Europe. Zep markes these products and services under well recognized and established brand names, such as Zep , Zep Commercial, Zep Professional, Enforcer, and Selig. Zep is its flagship brand and represents largest portfolio of cleaning and maintenance solutions for commercial, industrial, and institutional customers needing highly effective product solutions and professional technical support. Zep Commercial provides professional cleaning and plumbing chemical products targeted to contractors and small business owners and are currently sold through The Home Depot, HD Supply and other retailers. Zep Professional was introduced in fiscal year 2009 and represents its portfolio of cleaning and maintenance solutions that are offered to customers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional end-markets who prefer to acquire product through the distribution channel. Selig offers a limited assortment of cleaning solutions targeted to commercial, industrial and institutional customers. It produces a range of cleaning and maintenance solutions for commercial, industrial, institutional, and consumer customers. Zeps commercial, industrial, and institutional customers include government entities and businesses ranging from small sole proprietorships to large corporations as well as distributors. Its sales and service organization covers the United States, Canada, Italy, Belgium, Luxemburg, the Netherlands and certain other smaller markets. It manufactures products at six facilities located in the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, and Italy.The key raw materi

Zep (FRA:14Z) Headlines

No Headlines