Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Fortune Industries, Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Fortune Industries, (FRA:FD9A) Business Description
Fortune Industries Inc Fortune Industries, Inc. was incorporated in the state of Delaware in 1988, restructured in 2000 and redomesticated to the state of Indiana in May 2005. The Company provides full service human resources outsourcing services through co-employment relationships with their clients. Effective November 30, 2008, the Company approved the sale of all of the remaining operating subsidiaries within four of the five segments, as Wireless Infrastructure, Transportation Infrastructure, Ultraviolet Technologies, and Electronics Integration, to a related party. Consequently, as of the effective date of the transaction, the Business Solutions segment is the Company's remaining operating segment. The Business Solutions segment is comprised of Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs) which provide full-service human resources outsourcing services through co-employment relationships with their clients. Companies operating in the Business Solutions Segment include Professional Staff Management, Inc. and subsidiaries (PSM); CSM, Inc. and subsidiaries and related entities (CSM); Precision Employee Management, LLC (PEM); and Employer Solutions Group, Inc. and related entities (ESG). The Companies in the Business Solutions segment bill their clients under Professional Services Agreements as licensed PEOs. The billing includes amounts for the client's gross wages, payroll taxes, employee benefits, workers' compensation insurance and an administration fee. The administration fee charged by the companies in this segment is typically a percentage of the gross payroll and is sufficient to allow the companies in this segment to provide payroll administration services, human resources consulting services, worksite safety training, and employment regulatory compliance for no additional fees. The Companies in the Business Solutions segment compete with other PEOs, third-party payroll processing and human resources consulting companies, and in-house human resources divisions. The Company's Business Solutions segment is subject to various federal, state and local laws and regulations pertaining to various employee benefit plans, employee retirement plans, Section 125 cafeteria plans, group health plans, welfare benefit plans and health care flexible spending accounts.
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