FUNC (First United) Predictability Rank

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What is First United Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First United Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First United Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First United Corp (NAS:FUNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19 South Second Street, Oakland, MD, USA, 21550-0009

Website

https://www.mybank.com

First United Corp is active in the financial services domain. The scope of its offering includes checking, savings, money market deposit accounts and certificates of deposit, business loans, personal loans, mortgage loans and lines of credit extended to both individuals and businesses. In addition, it provides safe deposit and night depository facilities, insurance products and trust services. The bank also provides residential real estate construction loans to builders and individuals for single-family dwellings. It conducts business in two operating segments: Community Banking and Trust and Investment Services.

Executives

Carissa Lynn Rodeheaver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	19 SOUTH SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Brian R. Boal	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Jason Barry Rush	officer: VP and Director of Operations	19 SOUTH SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Irvin Robert Rudy	director	121 NORTH SECOND ST, OAKLAND MD 21550
Marisa A. Shockley	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Kevin Hessler	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
John Mccullough	director	19 SOUTH SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Beth Moran	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
John F. Barr	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Christy Dipietro	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Patricia Milon	director	19 S SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Gary Ruddell	director	19 SOUTH SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Sanu Chadha	director	19 S. SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
M Kathryn Burkey	director	P.O. BOX 9, 19 SOUTH SECOND STREET, OAKLAND MD 21550
Elaine L Mcdonald	director	672 WHITE OAK DR, SWANTON MD 21561