HCWB (HCW Biologics) Predictability Rank

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What is HCW Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HCW Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HCW Biologics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » HCW Biologics Inc (NAS:HCWB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2929 N Commerce Parkway, Miramar, FL, USA, 33025

Website

https://www.hcwbiologics.com

HCW Biologics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel immunotherapies to lengthen the health span by disrupting the link between chronic, low-grade inflammation and age-related diseases. The company has developed TOBI discovery platform, or Tissue factor-based fusion discovery platform, for the design of category-defining immunotherapeutic drugs. It has selected two molecules as its product candidate; HCW9218 and HCW9302. HCW9218 is a bifunctional immunotherapeutic designed with the capabilities to neutralize transforming growth and stimulate immune cells. HCW9302 is designed to activate and expand regulatory T cells, which deactivate inflammasomes.

Executives

Gary M Winer	director	C/O LENSAR, INC., 2800 DISCOVERY DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32826
Hing C Wong	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Rebecca Byam	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Lee Flowers	officer: SVP of Business Development	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Rick S. Greene	director	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Jin-an Jiao	officer: VP of Development	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Lisa M. Giles	director	DURATA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 2550, CHICAGO IL 60606
Scott T Garrett	director	35 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Peter Rhode	officer: See Remarks	C/O HCW BIOLOGICS, INC., 2929 N COMMERCE PKWY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Medmira Capital Ltd.	10 percent owner	16F BEIKE BUILDING, 59 GAOXIN NANJIU RD, SHENZHEN F4 518057