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Elegance Optical International Holdings (HKSE:00907) Predictability Rank


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What is Elegance Optical International Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Elegance Optical International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Elegance Optical International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Elegance Optical International Holdings (HKSE:00907) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Elegance Optical International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00907) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00876 HKSE:08513 HKSE:01134 HKSE:01947 HKSE:01406 HKSE:01120 ISRG XPAR:EL BDX XSWX:ALC TSE:7741 RMD OCSE:COLO B TSE:4543 WST XSWX:STMN XPAR:DIM TSE:7733 COO BAX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
145 Hennessy Road, On Hong Commercial Building, Room 22, 22nd Floor, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.elegance-group.com
Elegance Optical International Holdings Ltd and its subsidiaries are the manufacturers and sellers of optical frames and sunglasses. Its operating segments include Manufacturing and trading engaged in the manufacture and trading of optical frames and sunglasses; the Property investment segment is involved in leasing properties for rental income; the Debts and securities investment segment engaged in investments in financial instruments and quoted shares; Film investment and distribution segment engaged in film right and movie distributions; and Energy business. It derives key revenue from the Manufacturing and trading segment. It operates in Europe, America, the PRC (including Hong Kong), and other countries.
Executives
Albert Yeung Capital Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cdm Trust & Board Services Ag 2301 Trustee
Emperor Capital Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Emperor Securities Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Luk Siu Man, Semon 2202 Interest of your spouse
Yeung Sau Shing, Albert 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Wong Chong Fai 2101 Beneficial owner
Kitchell Osman Bin 2101 Beneficial owner
Wong Hoi Fung 2101 Beneficial owner

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