Sitoy Group Holdings (HKSE:01023) Predictability Rank


HKSE:01023 Sitoy Group Holdings Ltd HKSE:01023
41 GF Score
Price HK$0.46
GF Value HK$0.53
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Sitoy Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sitoy Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

HKSE:01023
41GF Score
Sitoy Group Holdings Ltd HKSE:01023
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Sitoy Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Sitoy Group Holdings (HKSE:01023) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sitoy Group Holdings stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of HK$0.46 is trading 13.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of HK$0.53. GuruFocus considers Sitoy Group Holdings to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for HKSE:01023:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: HK$0.53 vs. price of HK$0.46 (13.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 41/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:01023 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Sitoy Group Holdings Business Description

Address 164 Wai Yip Street, 9th Floor, Sitoy Tower, Kowloon, Kwun Tong, Hong Kong, HKG
Sitoy Group Holdings Ltd engages in the design, development, manufacture, retail, and wholesale of handbags, small leather goods, travel goods, and footwear, along with advertising, marketing services, and property investment. The Group owns TUSCAN'S, Fashion and Joy, and Duffy, offering bags, leather goods, shoes, clothing, and accessories. It operates through Retail, Manufacturing for resale, and Property Investment segments. Retail covers retail and wholesale of owned or licensed brands and marketing services, while Manufacturing produces handbags, small leather goods, and travel goods for resale by others. Property Investment focuses on office spaces for rental income or capital appreciation, with revenue mainly generated in the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macau, and other regions.
41GF Score

Get the complete analysis for HKSE:01023

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

HK$0.46
Price
HK$0.53
GF Value