China Tourism Group Duty Free (HKSE:01880) Predictability Rank

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What is China Tourism Group Duty Free Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China Tourism Group Duty Free Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (HKSE:01880) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

601888:China

Address

No. 2A, Dongzhimenwai Street, 8th Floor, Building A, Dongcheng District, Beijing, CHN, 100027

Website

https://www.ctgdutyfree.com.cn

Established in 1984, China Tourism Group Duty Free is China's largest and the world's second-largest travel retailer in 2024 with revenue of CNY 56.5 billion. The company primarily operates duty-free stores at airports, border crossings, offshore, downtown, and on flights, cruises and ships, with about 200 stores spanning over 30 provinces in China, as well as overseas. The company also operates a duty-paid business and its 2024 revenue mix comprised 69% duty-free sales and 31% duty-paid sales and others. CTG Duty Free is 50.3% owned by China Tourism Group, a state-owned enterprise that falls directly under the state-owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council.

Executives

Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Rui Zhong Ren Shou Bao Xian You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Blackrock, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Citigroup Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Aggregate Of Abrdn Plc Affiliated Investment Management Entities	2102 Investment manager
Morgan Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bank Of America Corporation
The Capital Group Companies, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gic Private Limited	2102 Investment manager
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.	2502 Approved lending agent

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