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Blue Moon Group Holdings (HKSE:06993) Predictability Rank


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What is Blue Moon Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Moon Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blue Moon Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Blue Moon Group Holdings Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Blue Moon Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06993) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02145 HKSE:06601 HKSE:03331 HKSE:00157 HKSE:01925 HKSE:02023 HKSE:03828 HKSE:06893 HKSE:01962 HKSE:00399 PG XPAR:OR LSE:ULVR BOM:500696 CL LSE:RKT KMB EL KVUE XTER:BEI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 36, Pu Nan Road, Yun Pu Industrial Zone, Huangpu District, Guangzhou, CHN, 510760
Website
https://www.bluemoon.com.cn
Blue Moon has a portfolio of market-leading products in three categories: fabric care, personal hygiene, and home care. Fabric care comprises around 85% of the group's revenue. As a pioneer in China's household care market, it holds a leading market share by value in China's liquid laundry detergent and liquid soap markets, as at 2023. Blue Moon is also an early entrant into e-commerce, with the online channel contributing over half of 2023 sales. Most of Blue Moon's core products are marketed under the namesake brand.
Executives
Luo Qiuping 2202 Interest of your spouse
Pan Dong 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qi De Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si
Hhlr Advisors, Ltd. 2102 Investment manager
Hhlr Fund, L.p. 2101 Beneficial owner
Hcm Bm Holdings, Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner

Blue Moon Group Holdings Headlines

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