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All Nation International Group (HKSE:08170) Predictability Rank


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What is All Nation International Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

All Nation International Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

All Nation International Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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All Nation International Group (HKSE:08170) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » All Nation International Group Ltd (HKSE:08170) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01727 HKSE:02355 HKSE:00611 HKSE:01741 HKSE:00331 HKSE:00896 HKSE:00687 HKSE:02236 HKSE:01283 HKSE:00994 XPAR:DG JCI SHSE:601668 NSE:LT SHSE:601390 HKSE:01800 J SHSE:601669 PWR XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 6-8 Harbour Road, Unit 2918, 29th Floor, Shui On Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.allnationinternational.com
All Nation International Group Ltd, formerly China All Nation International Holdings Group Ltd is principally engaged in the provision of civil engineering consulting, contracting, project management, and interior design and decoration services as well as office sub-leasing. The operating business of the company is Contracting; Interior design and decoration works and Property subleasing and management services. It generates maximum revenue from the Property sub-leasing and management service segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from China.
Executives
Sonic Solutions Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Su Hongtao 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lin Ye 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sonic Solutions Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Xia Yuqing 2101 Beneficial owner
Jing Shiqi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wealth Triumph Corporation 2101 Beneficial owner
Li Song 2101 Beneficial owner
Liu Guo Ping 2101 Beneficial owner

All Nation International Group (HKSE:08170) Headlines

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