Times Neighborhood Holdings (HKSE:09928) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Times Neighborhood Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Times Neighborhood Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Times Neighborhood Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Times Neighborhood Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Times Neighborhood Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Times Neighborhood Holdings Ltd (HKSE:09928) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 410 Dongfeng Middle Road, Room 1103, 11th Floor, Yuexiu District, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, CHN

Website

http://www.shidaiwuye.com

Times Neighborhood Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company engaged in the provision of property management services which include value-added services for non-property owners, community value-added services, and other professional services are among the company's offerings. The group's revenue comes entirely from its Mainland China operations. It manages a diversified portfolio of properties and in addition to focusing on the three major businesses of residential, industrial parks, and public buildings, we also manage commercial properties, office buildings, urban space, and other businesses.

Executives

Xingtai Capital Management Limited	2102 Investment manager
Shum Chiu Hung
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Yiping	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Li Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jia Ming Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chao Da Chuang Tou You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhuo Yuan Chuang Tou You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

Times Neighborhood Holdings Headlines

No Headlines