ICMB (Investcorp Credit Management BDC) Predictability Rank

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What is Investcorp Credit Management BDC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Investcorp Credit Management BDC Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc (NAS:ICMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

280 Park Avenue, 39th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.icmbdc.com

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment firm that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (BDC). Its investment objective is to maximize total return to stockholders in the form of current income and capital appreciation by investing in debt and related equity of privately held lower middle-market companies. The company principally invests in the debt of middle-market companies, which it defines as those companies that have an enterprise value.

Executives

Suhail A. Shaikh	officer: President	C/O ALCENTRA CAPITAL CORPORATION, 200 PARK AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10166
Cyrus Capital Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	65 EAST 55 STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rocco Delguercio	officer: CFO, CCO & Treasurer	CREDIT SUISSE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, ONE MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Investcorp Bdc Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	CENTURY YARD, CRICKET SQUARE, ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN E9 GRAND CAYM
Cyrus Capital Partners Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stephen C Freidheim	10 percent owner	C/O CYRUS CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lee Michael Shaiman	director	C/O INVESTCORP CREDIT MANAGEMENT BDC INC, 280 PARK AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Keith Lee	director	399 PARK AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael Mauer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVE., SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
Thomas J Sullivan	director	C/O SPIRIT REALTY CAPITAL INC., 2727 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75201
S.a. Investcorp	10 percent owner	CENTURY YARD, CRICKET SQUARE, P.O. BOX 1111, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Investcorp Credit Management Us Llc	10 percent owner	280 PARK AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sipco Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	CENTURY YARD, CRICKET SQUARE, P.O. BOX 1111, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1102
Gerald Cummins	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP., 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 255, GREENWICH CT 06830
Robert P Ryder	director	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564