ICMB (Investcorp Credit Management BDC) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.27% (As of Jul. 01, 2026)


ICMB Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc ICMB
37 GF Score
Price $1.19
GF Value $2.92
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
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What is Investcorp Credit Management BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Investcorp Credit Management BDC ICMB -4.88% 37 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27% as of Jul. 01, 2026. GuruFocus rates ICMB with a GF Score™ of 37/100 and a GF Value™ of $2.92 (Significantly Undervalued).

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Investcorp Credit Management BDC  (NAS:ICMB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

ICMB vs EQS, BHV, RCG: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Asset Management subindustry, Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ICMB
37GF Score
Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc ICMB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Investcorp Credit Management BDC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.35

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=1.27%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.27% mean?
Investcorp Credit Management BDC (ICMB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.27% as of Jul. 01, 2026.
Is Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Investcorp Credit Management BDC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27%. Overall, Investcorp Credit Management BDC has a GF Score™ of 37/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to EQS and BHV?
Investcorp Credit Management BDC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.27% can be compared against companies in the Asset Management industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Asset Management company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Asset Management industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Investcorp Credit Management BDC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Investcorp Credit Management BDC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Investcorp Credit Management BDC (ICMB) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $2.92, compared to a current price of $1.19 — trading 59.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27%. Investcorp Credit Management BDC's overall GF Score™ is 37/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Investcorp Credit Management BDC (ICMB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.27% as of Jul. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Investcorp Credit Management BDC (ICMB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Investcorp Credit Management BDC stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $1.19 is trading 59.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $2.92. GuruFocus considers Investcorp Credit Management BDC to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for ICMB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.27%
  • GF Value™: $2.92 vs. price of $1.19 (59.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 37/100

No single metric tells the full story. See the ICMB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Investcorp Credit Management BDC Business Description

Address 280 Park Avenue, 39th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Investcorp Credit Management BDC Inc is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment firm that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (BDC). The investment objective of the company is to maximize total return to stockholders in the form of current income and capital appreciation by investing in debt and related equity of privately held lower middle-market companies. The company principally invests in the debt of middle-market companies, which it defines as those companies that have an enterprise value.
37GF Score

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$1.19
Price
$2.92
GF Value